Election polls 2024 live: Nate Silver makes shock prediction Trump will win

Republicans have taken the lead in early voting in Nevada, the latest numbers show.

GOP voters lead Democrats by 12,000 votes cast.

Overall, 333,000 people – or 16.6% – have voted. If turnout reaches 1.4 million, that means just under a quarter of the vote is in, noted Nevada political expert Jon Ralston.

Nevada mails a ballot to every registered voter a few weeks before the election and it needs to be postmarked by Election Day in order to be counted. People can also vote in person if they wish.

Polls show Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are tied in the state.

The high voting numbers could be good news for Trump assuming the Republican voters voted for him.

Polling guru Nate Silver maintains that all his models and forecasts have the presidential election as a 50/50 dead heat – but says his ‘gut’ tells him Donald Trump will come out victorious.

One of his main reasons was Trump’s tendency to underperform in polls, and with Silver’s own model showing the candidates just 1.6 percent apart, the pollster said his ‘intuition’ points to the Republican.

With former President Donald Trump’s encouragement, Republicans are voting early again, flocking to the polls for in-person voting ahead of Election Day and helping push the national number to nearly 19 million.

The early turnout is breaking records in swing states such as Georgia and North Carolina.

The GOP hopes this surge of early votes will fix a mechanical problem that some in the party blame for costing it the 2020 presidential election and key races in 2022.

Campaigns usually want their voters to cast ballots ahead of Election Day so they can focus their resources on getting more marginal supporters to the polls at the last minute.

Republicans excelled at that before Trump turned against early in-person and mail voting in 2020, as he spun wild conspiracies about the process and convinced his supporters to wait until Election Day to cast their ballots. But the party is again pushing its voters to cast their ballots early, and the former president is largely encouraging the change.

‘I am telling everyone to vote early,’ Trump said on a podcast last week hosted by conservative Dan Bongino, who has widely spread false information about early voting and the 2020 election.

Republicans seem to be responding. In Nevada, where Democrats for decades relied on a robust early vote to counter the GOP on Election Day, about 6,000 more Republicans than Democrats had actually cast early ballots this year as of Tuesday, according to Associated Press research.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

A Muslim Democrat says he was removed from a Kamala Harris rally in Michigan without explanation.

Former congressional candidate Ahmed Ghanim was invited to attend the event in Royal Oaks on Monday.

He then says a staff member from the Harris campaign approached him and told him to follow them.

Secret Service agents, he says, then greeted him with local police and told him he had to leave, and didn’t give him a reason.

Harris, during an interview with NBC’s Hallie Jackson Tuesday evening, said that she wouldn’t entertain any ‘concessions’ regarding abortion legislation, including religious exemptions.

I don’t believe we should be making concessions when we’re talking about a fundamental freedom to make decision about your own body.

Her comments quickly garnered backlash from religious conservatives.

Kamala Harris admits she would deny religious exemptions for abortions—forcing Christians to kill unborn children and seemingly doubling down on weaponizing the government to jail pro-lifers who pray outside abortion facilities. Why would any Christian vote for her?

SBA Pro-Life America said that Harris promises ‘freedom’ but then will ‘federally steamroll Americans into taking part in abortions against their will.’

Chairman Ralph Reed of the conservative Faith and Freedom Coalition added:

So she’s not only pro-abortion, she is anti-religious freedom. Duly noted.

Vice President Kamala Harris will answer questions at a town hall campaign event Wednesday night hosted by CNN and moderated by anchor Anderson Cooper.

CNN says they will select the audience members in the room, Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.

A network spokesperson has said that CNN has not edited or offered any help in drafting the questions from the audience.

Cooper is expected to moderate and ask follow up questions to the vice president.

The event will be broadcast on CNN and begins at 9:00 p.m. EST.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have set their sights on Pennsylvania as key to victory in the presidential election. But it is not their only path to the White House.

Last week, Harris visited the state twice with campaign events in Erie and Washington Crossing, Pennsylvania. Trump campaigned in Oaks, Pennsylvania, and Latrobe outside Pittsburgh.

Pennsylvania with its nineteen electoral votes is the biggest of the seven battleground states that could swing either way and decide the election.

And the latest polling is showing the race in a dead heat in the crucial swing state, with Trump up just half a point in the Real Clear Politics average.

While the path forward to the necessary 270 electoral votes becomes much more complicated without Pennsylvania, it does not mean the race is over for either Trump or Harris.

Speaking Wednesday evening in Las Vegas, Nevada, former President Bill Clinton avoided talking about Donald Trump.

I want you to tell people why Harris is better.

Clinton said the election is about voting for the future and he is casting his ballot for Harris with his grandchildren in mind.

He touted Harris’ economic plan including putting money into homebuilding.

Harris has proposed giving first-time homebuyers a $25,000 financial incentive to purchase a home.

By Emily Goodin, senior White House correspondent

Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to ‘capitalize on’ the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and end the war in Gaza.

Blinken met with Netanyahu for two and a half hours during his trip to Tel Aviv. President Joe Biden dispatched his secretary of state to the Middle East to revive talks of a ceasefire and get a deal to bring the remaining hostages home.

‘Now is the time to turn those successes into an enduring strategic success, and there are really two things left to do: get the hostages home and bring the war to an end with an understanding of what will follow. And that’s what we’ve been working on this past day and will continue to work on throughout this trip,’ Blinken told reporters.

The secretary of state’s next stop was Saudi Arabia. He arrived in Riyadh on Wednesday morning where he met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Blinken, before he departed Israel, was staying at the David Kempinski in Tel Aviv where he had to take shelter with other guests when a Hezbollah missile launch set off warning sirens.

With exactly two weeks before Election Day, Usha Vance just gave Americans the most personal peak into her life since her husband, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, was tapped as Donald Trump’s running mate.

And the rare insight has come to light through the books the aspiring second lady totes around on the campaign trail.

The Yale Law-grad mother of three has been a regular presence alongside her husband since the best-selling author of Hillbilly Elegy was asked to join the ticket by Trump in July.

Photos of Usha, in fact, always seem to capture her walking around with one or more books, be it Daniel Mason’s ‘North Woods,’ Tana French’s ‘In the Woods’ or a copy of ‘The Iliad.’

Ahead of the 2024 Presidential election, see how Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are really faring among voters with DailyMail.com’s brilliant poll tracker.

Readers can view who is winning the head-to-head race as well as the situation in the battleground states that will ultimately decide who gets into the White House.

All of the data used in our analysis comes from Harris versus Trump polls collated by DailyMail.com’s pollsters J.L. Partners and FiveThirtyEight.

The hotel parking lot is deserted but for the red, white and blue bus, decorated with the giant features of Donald Trump.

It is still dark outside, but through the window a lone figure, impeccably dressed in red tie, white shirt and navy blazer, is hunched over a microphone at 7am.

‘When you look at what is ahead for a Trump administration, cost cutting … inflation is going to go down,’ John Fredericks tells his listeners in battleground states around the country.

‘We’re going to rein in spending. He’s already said that they’re going to close the border, they’re going to deport the illegals. They’re going to get the criminals out.’

Democrats are now in desperation mode, he says. Everything they’re doing is desperate because they know they’re going to lose.’

The Democratic candidate for Missouri was brutally mocked after he struck a television reporter with shrapnel from an AR-15 round during a campaign event on Tuesday.

Wannabe Senator Lucas Kunce was firing the weapon during an appearance at a private range in Holt, Missouri when a bullet fragment struck television reporter Ryan Gamboa in the arm.

The Democrat was firing shots alongside former Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger before he had to bandage the KSHB-TV journalist’s bloody arm.

Keir Starmer today tried to shrug off a furious reaction from Donald Trump over Labour activists campaigning for his Democrat rival.

The PM insisted the pair could still work together despite the Republican candidate’s campaign accusing the party of ‘blatant foreign interference’ in the US election.

A complaint to the Federal Election Commission says sending activists to the States amounts to ‘illegal foreign campaign contributions’ for Kamala Harris.

Trump’s aides cited a now-deleted post on LinkedIn by Sofia Patel, Labour’s head of operations, which said 100 current and former staffers were going to be volunteering in battleground states such as North Carolina and Nevada. Significantly it suggested that accommodation would be arranged.

Rules about foreigners working in US elections are strict and state that they must volunteer and cannot receive any payment.

Grilled by reporters en route to Samoa for the Commonwealth summit overnight, Sir Keir insisted activists had always been able to offer support in the US.

Former Hawaii Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard announced she is joining the Republican party Tuesday night.

Taking the stage before thousands in Greensboro, North Carolina, Gabbard cemented her conversion from Democrat to Republican.

‘It is because of my love for our country and specifically because of the leadership that President Trump has brought to transform the Republican Party that I’m proud to stand here with you today and announce that I’m joining the Republican Party,’ she proudly declared.

She continued: ‘I’m joining the party of the people, the party of equality, the party that was founded to fight against and end slavery in this country.’

Gabbard said that the GOP and Trump were ‘the party of common sense and the party that is led by a president who has the courage and strength to fight for peace.’

The two then embraced on stage in front of a screaming audience.

Donald Trump called Barack Obama ‘a jerk’ on Tuesday night while Obama mercilessly mocked the GOP candidate – reigniting a bitter feud between the two former presidents.

Trump went after Obama at a campaign stop in North Carolina, claiming the Democrat looked ‘exhausted’ and ‘couldn’t care less’ about the country.

‘I think he’s a real jerk because I’ve watched him campaign over the last couple of days,’ Trump said.

‘Over the last couple of days I’ve watched him campaign. What a divider he is. He divides this country. He couldn’t care less, him and his little group of people.’

Meanwhile, Obama took some jabs at Trump for selling sneakers and watches during a rally in Detroit where he rapped onstage after being introduced by Eminem.