Election ‘Nostradamus’ blames incorrect prediction partly on Elon Musk and ‘explosion’ of disinformation

Allan Lichtman, who incorrectly predicted that Kamala Harris would win the 2024 election, blamed Elon Musk and the “explosion” of disinformation during the campaign.

The American political historian had been dubbed the “Nostradamus” of elections because – until last week – he successfully predicted the last nine out of 10 presidential races since 1984. He consistently backed his original prediction that Harris would win in 2024.

But since Donald Trump claimed victory last week, the professor acknowledged he was wrong and would reassess his method.

Reflecting on the result, Lichtman said he was “sounding the alarm” about Musk.

“Disinformation has exploded to an unprecedented degree,” Lichtman told NewsNation’s Chris Cuomo on Monday night. “We’ve seen something brand new this time – billionaire Elon Musk putting his thumb on the scales.

“It’s been reported that his misinformation had had billions, literally billions of views and this has spread to every aspect of this election,” Lichtman said.

“When I was a kid, I read science fiction books, you know, the premise was a few mega rich people are able to control society. We’re not all that far from it and I am sounding the alam and I don’t think I’m the only one,” he added.

In addition to his claims about Musk, Lichtman listed misinformation about the economy, immigration, reproductive rights and foreign policy as reasons why his prediction about Harris turned out to be wrong.

Lichtman’s method for forecasting the race so accurately in previous election cycles is known as “The Keys to the White House,” a system he devised with the Russian academic Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.

The academic has defended his method, which looks at 13 factors from the president’s party’s standing in the House of Representatives to the health of the domestic economy, any record of scandal, social unrest, or foreign policy disasters during their tenure, and the comparative charisma of the two candidates to decide the victor, applying “true” or “false” designations to each category.

He acknowledged that his method “maybe” needs to be changed in light of last week’s events.

“The premise of the keys is that a rational, pragmatic electorate decides whether the White House party has governed well enough to get four more years,” Lichtman told Cuomo.

“But if the views of the White House party are controlled by disinformation, particularly driven by those who are so rich that they have extraordinary influence beyond anyone else, then maybe the premise of the keys need to be changed.”

Since the election result, Lichtman shared that his family has faced death threats.

“We’ve faced death threats, doxxing, swatting and intimidation at our doorstep,” he said in a post on X. “We will not be bullied. Federal law enforcement is now alerted.”