Could Hurricane Milton stop Trump winning the election? Top pollster CRAIG KESHISHIAN reveals how devastation in these key Republican strongholds could radically re-shape the race

Nearly every modern US presidential election cycle has been upended by an unforeseen ‘surprise’ of one sort or another.

In July 1972, Democratic presidential candidate George McGovern was shocked to learn, after his party’s summer convention, that his running mate Thomas Eagleton had secretly received electroshock therapy to treat bouts of depression.

That was enough to discredit Eagleton with the grand poohbahs of the Democratic Party and help doom McGovern’s campaign.

Eight years later, I was working as a strategist for Ronald Reagan’s 1980 presidential campaign, when my bosses coined the phrase ‘October Surprise’.

They were concerned that our opponent, President Jimmy Carter, would transform the race by negotiating a last-minute deal with armed Iranian revolutionaries to release the 53 American hostages who had been held in Tehran for over a year.

Of course, everyone wanted the hostages released no matter what the circumstances, but it was our job to anticipate the potential political fallout of such an event.

Now, in 2024, here we are again.

It’s early October, less than four weeks until the election and there’s another October Surprise is in the making.

This one is not man-made. It is not the result of an unforced error by a candidate behaving badly.

It is an act of God bearing down on the critical swing state of Florida. 

First and foremost, I pray that every single person impacted by Hurricane Milton emerges from this storm safely and free from property loss.

I also recognize that this, tragically, is an unlikely outcome. So, I offer this analysis as a political strategist and pollster, fully aware that many things in life are more important than an election.

But is it my job to consider what may happen – and I’ve concluded that Milton may be a game-changer come November 5.

Let me explain:

In the 2020 election, Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden in Florida by over 370,000 votes, which equates to barely 3 percentage points.

That’s a decent margin in the Sunshine State, but not a dominant one.

Trump won in 2020, in part, by running up the Republican tally in ruby-red GOP counties like Pasco, Marion and Sarasota, near Tampa.

Big turnouts in those Republican strongholds offset Democratic wins in blue regions of the state, like Miami-Dade County in Florida’s southeast.

But now, Hurricane Milton is blowing its way right into the heart of Florida – and places like Pasco and Sarasota lie directly in its path.

(Above) Hundreds take shelter at Virgil Mills Elementary School ahead of Hurricane Milton, in Palmetto, Florida

(Above) Robert Haight looks around his destroyed house after it was hit by a reported tornado in Fort Myers, Florida, on October 9, 2024

Of all the 15 Florida counties under mandatory state evacuation orders, 14 are dominantly, if not overwhelmingly, Republican.

The total number of registered Republican voters in those 15 counties is slightly over two million, while the number of registered Democrats in those same counties is about 1.2 million.

Approximately 800,000 more registered Republicans than registered Democrats in the state of Florida are being told to get out of their homes.

And that may have an enormous impact.

In the 2020 election, there was a huge 77 percent turnout rate in Florida – meaning nearly one out of every eight eligible voters cast a ballot.

What will it be in 2024?

Both Democrats and Republicans Floridians in these Milton-impacted areas will be under duress, hopefully not in life-threatening jeopardy, but certainly disadvantaged or inconvenienced to the point that they may not vote.

For argument’s sake, consider what happens if dislocation, financial loss, physical harm or emotional stress depress Florida’s turnout rate to 40 percent.

That’s a realistic assumption. Who would bother voting if their house had been blown off its foundations or their truck has been destroyed – or worse?

At that suppressed 40 percent rate, only 320,000 Republicans in these impacted counties would show up on election day or mail-in their ballot.

That’s a projected loss of 280,000 Republican votes.

Remember, Trump only won by 370,000.

In other words, this election may have just gotten much, much closer.

And now add to this calculations the additional motivating factors that are driving Florida Democrats to the polls.

There is a measure on the ballot that would establish a right to abortion in the Florida Constitution – and another would legalize recreational marijuana.

Many of my fellow Republican strategists underestimated the electoral impact of abortion measures on the ballot in the 2020 midterms – as they predicted a ‘Red Wave’ for the GOP across the country.

I thought otherwise and said so on national television at the time.

Indeed, the ‘Red Wave’ never materialized.

There is reason for Donald Trump’s campaign to be concerned.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is an honorable guy, and he understands his primary duty is to protect people and property in his state.

But I’m hoping the governor’s office, amongst its many initiatives in the coming days, also thinks of how voters may be disenfranchised by this storm.

Perhaps the Governor can loosen absentee voting rules, or, better yet, attach an absentee ballot — Democrat and Republican — to every aid packet that his Office of Emergency Management distributes.

By doing so, the Governor will fulfill his obligations to protect life as well as democracy.

No race should be won because Americans couldn’t vote.

Craig Keshishian was a project director on President Reagan’s polling team and later, served in Reagan’s Presidential Speechwriting and Research Office