BUSINESS LIVE: Markets brace for Budget; Next profits to top £1bn; GSK vaccine sales fall

Germany’s gross domestic product unexpectedly grew in the third quarter, driven by government and household spending.

Fears had been mounting that Germany would contract for a second consecutive quarter, thereby pushing Europe’s biggest economy into a ‘technical’ recession.

Official data from the country’s statistics office on Wednesday showed the Germany economy expanded by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter compared with the previous three-month period.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, comments on Volkswage:

Like a lot of companies in the West, Volkswagen is finding life difficult in China, but the response to a big drop in sales and profit shows that its problems run deeper.

The company wants to cut costs but that may be difficult given the attitude of its employees who are looking for pay increases.

Expect a big battle over plans to close several plants and lay off tens of thousands of workers.

Like many of its peers the industry is in a difficult position, essentially in flux as the transition to electric vehicles has encountered some major speed bumps.

Not least a sharp decline in sales in its domestic German market after the government cut back purchase subsidies in late 2023.

Aston Martin Lagonda’s losses plummeted by 90 per cent in the third quarter as the luxury carmaker enjoyed strong demand for its DB12 vehicles.

The group reported pre-tax losses of £12.2million for the three months ending September, compared to £117.6million over the same period last year.

Speculation about what the Budget might hold for savers has triggered a big rush to top up or max out Isas and pensions early this year.

The number of clients using up their entire £20,000 Isa allowance already is up 40 per cent on last year, according to Hargreaves Lansdown.

George Lagarias, chief economist at Forvis Mazars:

‘If there’s one thing markets hate more than an expansive budget is a surprisingly expansive budget. Ms Reeves seems pragmatic enough to understand that the true test of the budget will not be her own party’s MPs, with a strong 78-vote majority, or the British Parliament as a whole, or even the Office of Budgetary Responsibility (OBR).

‘Rather it is financial markets. As such, the notion of a sealed box containing surprises for everyone to be presented first in Parliament is not only outdated, but potentially inflammatory for the economy and the yield on His Majesty’s debt.”

‘A non-market event is what Rachel Reeves is hoping for, and quite possibly (albeit never assuredly) what she will get, as she has communicated her intentions well in advance. A spike in UK yields, despite the early information campaign, could mean that markets are becoming wary of Britain’s fiscal position.’

Britain’s climate change activists may think they have gained the upper hand in the battle against fossil fuels.

But the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have underlined the importance to all our lives of energy security.

HSBC’s chief executive has denied that a recently announced East-West split will lead to a full-blown break-up of the bank.

Georges Elhedery pushed back against speculation that his major overhaul of the lender was a step towards spinning off parts of the bank.

GSK shares fell on Wednesday after the group’s vaccine sales continued to disappoint in the third quarter.

The drugmaker saw weaker-than-expected demand for its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and shingles vaccines over the period, and GSK now expects total sales to fall this year by a low-single digit percentage.

GSK, which had previously expected the business to grow by a low- to mid-single digit percentage, has cut its 2024 vaccine sales forecast for the second time this year.

Aston Martin posted a smaller-than-expected third-quarter loss on Wednesday, as the luxury carmaker reaffirmed its annual forecast, saying supply disruptions that had caused factory delays were being ‘proactively managed’.

Shares are up as much as 6 per cent in early trade following the results, which come as European carmakers grapple with weak demand in China and the US.

Aston Martin had warned last month of a lower annual profit and cut its production forecast by about 1,000 vehicles due to disruption at several suppliers, causing manufacturing delays. It also cited persistent weak demand from China.

New CEO Adrian Hallmark said in a statement that the improved financial and operational performance in the third quarter demonstrated the effectiveness of the group’s strategy to ramp up production of fresh models.

Next is on track to make over £1billion in annual profits for the first time in its history, after the retailer upgraded guidance for the third time in three months.

Next cheered a colder weather boost to sales of its autumn and winter ranges, with full-price sales rising 7.6 per cent in its third quarter to 26 October.

Mamta Valechha, consumer discretionary analyst at Quilter Cheviot:

‘Next delivered a positive trading statement today with its third quarter full-price sales increasing well over 7%, ahead of guidance of 5%. This echoes recent UK data-points of a strong start to Autumn/Winter 2024 sales driven by the early arrival of colder weather this year, versus an unusually warm September and early October last year.

‘Within the numbers growth was notably driven by online, particularly overseas, which was up over 20%, while UK sales improved both online and in store after a weather impacted the first half of the year, growing 5.8%.

‘Looking ahead, Next nudged up full year profit guidance by 1% based on full-price sales growth of +4.9% . Next’s final quarter guidance implies a deceleration in Q4, with the release noting the company is “more confident in the two year comparison as we believe the overperformance in Q3 this year is likely to have pulled forward sales from Q4.’

A huge blaze has broken out at BAE Systems’ shipyard that builds Britain’s nuclear submarines but there is no major risk from the incident, police said on Wednesday.

Pictures online showed what looked like flames and black smoke emerging from the top of the vast Devonshire Dock Hall building that is visible from miles away. Covering around six acres, it is the second biggest shipbuilding complex of its kind in Europe, according to the company.

Cumbria police in north-west England said in a statement that two people had been taken to a hospital after suffering from suspected smoke inhalation and that there were no other casualties.

Police said the emergency services were called to the site at 00:44 GMT.

Online trading platforms suffered a pre-Budget sell-off yesterday amid fears over the contents of the Chancellor’s red box.

While businesses and households have much to fret about – from higher employer national insurance contributions to a hike in bus fares – firms such as CMC Markets and IG Group were hit by speculation over what might happen to capital gains tax.

Keir Starmer last week sparked outrage when he insisted that anyone who owns shares is not a ‘working person’ – the implication being they are fair game for a revenue-hungry Treasury.

GSK has lowered its 2024 vaccine sales forecast for the second time this year, hit by weak demand for its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and shingles vaccines.

The British drugmaker now expects 2024 vaccine sales to decrease by low-single digit percentage in turnover. It had previously expected the business to grow by a low to mid-single digit percentage.

The company reported core earnings per share of 49.7p on sales of £8billion for the three months to 30 September, compared with an EPS of 43.6p on sales of about £8billion forecast by analysts.

It kept full-year total sales and earnings forecasts unchanged.

‘Strong growth in specialty medicines helped to offset lower vaccine sales and reflected successful new product launches in oncology and HIV,’ GSK CEO Emma Walmsley said in a statement.

Next expects annual profits to exceed £1billion as the fashion retailer upgraded guidane for the third time in four months on Wednesday.

The group said the upgrade reflected a better-than-expected 7.6 per cent rise in third quarter full price sales, driven by the early arrival of colder weather this year, versus an unusually warm September and early October last year

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown:

‘The FTSE 100 looks set to open lower, as uncertainty swirls about the contents of the UK Budget, the first from a Labour Chancellor in 14 years.

‘UK investors are braced for a shovel of tax hikes to fill a yawning black hole in the UK government’s finances. There is speculation that Rachel Reeves will try to find ways to raise revenue and cut spending to cover a shortfall of up to £40 billion.

‘The details of how debt rules will be changed to enable the government to borrow more without breaking its self-imposed borrowing limits are set to be announced.

‘This strategy has been widely trailed to avoid a temperamental attitude from bond investors breaking out, and so far, it appears to have done the trick, although institutions financing government borrowing will keep a keen eye trained on what the swelling investment budget will be spent on.

‘Already her expected Budget plans have been judged by bond dealers to push UK government bond issuance towards £300 billion this year, around a 6% increase on the existing target.

‘Any sign of profligacy may well be punished by investors demanding a greater return to hold UK debt. Already nervousness has increased, with UK gilt yields pushing higher to around 4.3%, but they are still lower than levels reached in July.

‘Part of this rise has been down to changing interest rate expectations and overall, markets still appear quietly confident that the Chancellor will keep focusing on carving out a reputation for prudence and responsibility. It’s looking unlikely that investment pledges announced today will max out the government’s new borrowing facility under the rule change.’

Rachel Reeves was last night accused of turning her back on economic growth as business braces for a Budget onslaught that will drive up costs and threaten livelihoods.

The Chancellor will today hit corporate Britain with an increase in employer national insurance contributions of up to 2p having previously branded the levy a ‘tax on jobs’.

The national insurance raid – which could raise as much as £20billion – comes alongside an inflation-busting 6.7 per cent increase in the minimum wage and a workers’ rights package costing firms £5billion a year.