Bombshell blow for Anthony Albanese just months out from a federal election as he faces being booted from the Lodge after just one term

Anthony Albanese’s bedrock of support is collapsing in NSW and Victoria just a few months before he seeks re-election at a federal election, new polling has revealed.

Labor’s primary vote has slumped from 33 to 29 per cent in Australia’s two most populous states, putting crucial seats, and Labor’s majority, in doubt, according to a survey by Resolve Strategic for Nine newspapers.

By contrast the Coalition, led by Peter Dutton, has seen a dramatic boost in Victoria with its primary vote surging from 33 to 38 per cent, while support in NSW increased from 37 to 38 per cent. 

The news for Labor is also bad in Western Australia with its primary vote plunging from 37 to 30 per cent since the last election, with the Coalition rising from 35 to 37..

It could see a reversal in the four seats Labor snatched from the Coalition in 2022 – Pearce, Hasluck, Swan and Tangney – with a new electorate in Bullwinkel also being contested in the next federal poll.

The Coalition’s resurgence in Victoria could also be bad news for the Teals, as it targets the two Melbourne seats the Liberals lost to them at the last election.

Monique Ryan holds Kooyong by a margin of just 2.2 per cent and Zoe Daniel holds Goldstein by 3.3 per cent, according to ABC election pendulum. 

Overall the Resolve Political Monitor showed the Coalition ahead with 51 per cent of support in two-party terms compared to Labor on 49 per cent, assuming preferences matched the last election. 

However, the close result was within the margin of error indicating the federal election remains tightly contested, and may ened in a hung parliament.

Mr Albanese maintained a slight edge over Mr Dutton as preferred prime minister in Victoria, where he leaders 36 to 34 per cent and in NSW where he is ahead 38 to 36. 

Resolve Director Jim Reed said the poll indicates Labor is in danger of losing power after only one term in government, for the first time federally in Australia since 1931.

‘In 2022, we correctly anticipated that Labor would win with less than a third of the primary vote, that they would pick up seats in Western Australia, that the Greens would win seats in Brisbane, and that Liberal heartland would be taken by the Teals,’ Mr Reed said.

‘This time around we’ll be looking for things that go against the received wisdom, like the possibility of a first-term government being voted out, the Liberals winning seats in Victoria, the Greens losing seats and independents being denied a second term.’

While the Greens have kept their primary vote steady at 12 per cent nationally, they have slipped from 13 per cent to 11 per cent in Queensland, which could endanger the three seats they picked up from major parties at the last election.

Overall Queensland remained relatively unchanged from previous quarterly analysis of polling.

Labor saw a slight fall in its primary vote from 27 to 26 per cent with the Coalition’s increasing from 40 to 41 per cent.

Resolve Political Monitor’s quarterly analysis of polling is based on responses from 4831 voters from October to December 2024.

Labor has also been losing ground in Newspolls, conducted for The Australian.

An analysis of Newspolls taken over the last quarter of 2024, shows 35 to 49-year-old voters, commonly mortgage holders who determine many swinging electorates, are shunning the Albanese government.

When grilled about his declining popularity at a press conference on Sunday, the Prime Minister downplayed the issue.

‘What I am worried about is helping fellow Australians,’ he said. ‘I have been underestimated my whole political life.

‘I am focused on making a difference for cost of living, making a difference for plans that we have going forward.

‘We have already announced a number of changes, including to address intergenerational equity issues by cancelling 20 per cent of HECS debts for people if we are reelected.’