Betting markets reveal whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris is surging ahead for the first time since the 2024 presidential debate
The odds now favor Donald Trump in betting markets over Kamala Harris, as international wagerers put their money behind a potential return to the White House by the former president.
Trump hasn’t led Harris for more than a month in the RealClearPolitics average of betting markets that allow wagers on the winner.
The average now gives Trump a 50.1 percent chance of winning, compared to 48.6 percent for Harris, in a race many political experts now refuse to call because it is so close.
That puts him in a better position than it RCP’s average of national public polls, where Harris leads Trump 49 to 47.
Even that average likely overstates Harris’s position, because the winner is determined by state-by-state results, where Trump has a built-in Electoral College advantage.
Former President Donald Trump now leads in betting odds to defeat Vice President Kamala Harris
The Trump boost in betters’ preferences follows a September where Trump gained on Harris in a number of key battleground states, with Trump gaining in Arizona and Georgia, along with North Carolina (a state Trump carried twice). He lost to Joe Biden in Arizona and Georgia in 2020.
Harris is holding narrow leads in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Pennsylvania, where Trump campaigns on Wednesday, is a dead-heat in the RCP average.
Among an array of betting sites, Trump now edges Harris on Bovada, Points Bet, and Polymarket. He still trails her 47 to 48 on Betfair, and they are tied on Bwin, and Smarkets, making the outcome essentially an even money bet.
DailyMail.com’s own prediction model has Trump seizing the lead in Mid-September, which coincided with his gains in state polls, despite voters declaring in post-debate polls that Harris got the best of him.
The intervening period has seen strong economic data that could boost Democrats, along with chaotic events overseas that could help Trump, who has repeatedly warned of World War III if he is defeated.
Harris wins in 55 out of 100 simulations in the fivethirtyeight blog’s model.
