Alexander Zverev has a fatal flaw. And this is how Jannik Sinner can exploit it and win the final
Zverev committed a backhand error on his second break point. On his third break point, his running forehand barely made the bottom of the net. On his fourth break point of the game, Djokovic directed his second serve to Zverev’s forehand. The German took four big steps to his right to hit a backhand return. This was a damning indictment of Zverev’s lack of confidence in his forehand.
Djokovic made Zverev hit a forehand on the next shot, and the German mishit it so badly it almost hit Djokovic in the head while standing two metres behind the baseline. Zverev committed another forehand error at deuce, followed by another forehand error to lose the game.
Alexander Zverev’s forehand misfired in the first set against Novak Djokovic before the Serbian retired with injury.Credit: AP
The failing forehand floodgates had opened.
Serving at advantage, Djokovic snuck in a drop shot mid-rally to Zverev’s forehand. It wasn’t a good one, and Zverev got to it in plenty of time and had a routine cross-court winner lined up. Instead of dispatching a winner, the ball failed to find the strings and Zverev spectacularly shanked it over Djokovic’s head and into the crowd.
Zverev sprayed six forehand errors in the game. Djokovic knew where he needed to go when push came to shove. Naturally, so will Sinner.
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Zverev’s forehand woes stem from his technique. When he gets tight, he brushes too steeply up the back of the ball, trying to lift it over the net instead of driving through it. It’s a common affliction for players at all levels. Unfortunately for Zverev, this problem is exacerbated under pressure. His forehand failed badly in the 1-1 game against Djokovic. The problem for Zverev is that every game in the final against a rampaging Sinner will include this much pressure and more.
What’s the quick fix for Zverev? Hit through four balls.
He needs to pretend there are three more imaginary balls right behind the real one that he needs to hit. That straightens out the swing path and presents the face of the racket squarely to the initial ball. Simply hitting through the ball by extending the hitting zone creates much cleaner contact. But it’s hard to reconstruct a stroke while trying to win your first grand slam final against the best player in the world.
Sinner’s 7-6 (7-2), 6-2, 6-2 demolition of Ben Shelton in Friday’s other semi-final provides yet another preview of how Sinner loves to smash his opponent’s forehands. Sinner hit seven forehand winners, while Shelton had 10. Pretty even all around.
Jannik Sinner has lost only two sets en route to the final.Credit: Eddie Jim
Sinner committed 29 forehand errors but only three in the final set. Shelton yielded 57 forehand errors for the match, while only committing 29 backhand errors. Sinner broke Shelton’s forehand down.
Expect the defending champion to rinse and repeat the forehand demolition.
Besides hitting the practice court this weekend to fix his forehand, Zverev has three other options to close the gap against Sinner.
The first is to look to finish more points at the front of the court. Zverev won an impressive 73 per cent (24 of 33) of net points in his four-set quarter-final victory over Tommy Paul. But that fell to just 50 per cent won (9/18) in the one-set pressure-cooker semi against Djokovic.
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The second is to serve lights out and reduce exposure to his wounded forehand in extended rallies. Zverev has won 101 more points than he has lost (396-295) in short rallies of 0-4 shots. That’s an ideal way for him not to be bossed around the baseline by Sinner.
Lastly, he needs to take on more risk with his return of serve and try to force as many groundstroke errors from Sinner with his first shot after the serve. All of these options are viable for the German, but for how long? A set? Maybe two? It feels like a bridge too far to contemplate Zverev successfully retooling his game style and improving his ailing forehand against the in-form defending champion.
There is also a lesson for Zverev to learn from Djokovic, who retired with a muscle tear in his leg in the semis. The Serb played a substantial number of long rallies in his matches, providing little advantage while exposing himself to picking up the injury.
Djokovic played 416 points with rallies of five shots or longer. He won 219 and lost 197, providing only a meagre 22-point advantage. Djokovic was far more effective in shorter rallies, enjoying an 84-point advantage (420 won, 336 lost) in rallies of 0-4 shots.
Zverev needs to throw the kitchen sink at Sinner with the first two shots he hits, whether serving or returning. Anything less than a full-frontal assault at the start of the point becomes a slow march to an inevitable loss.
