Sports

AI supercomputer predicts the Champions League’s most-likely winners with Real Madrid just FIFTH favourites ahead of the last-16 draw

The chance of an English team winning this season’s UEFA Champions League is just over 38%, according to Opta’s AI supercomputer.

Ahead of Friday’s draw for the round of 16 and beyond, the supercomputer simulated the remainder of the tournament 10,000 times before Opta published its findings.

Liverpool are said to be the most likely winners. The Reds have a 20.2 per cent chance of lifting the trophy.

Arsenal are the second favourites to go all the way with a 16.8% chance of ending the season as European champions Meanwhile, the Gunners have a 79% probability of reaching the quarter-finals – with the supercomputer naming them the least likely side to lose in the round of 16, where Mikel Arteta’s men will face PSV Eindhoven or Feyenoord.

Aston Villa won the European Cup in 1982 but they have only a 1.2% chance of repeating that feat this season.

England only has three teams left in this season’s Champions League after Manchester City exited in the playoff round by losing 6-3 to Real Madrid. Kylian Mbappe scored four goals against City as Madrid looked like the Real deal over two legs. However, Opta only rates Madrid as fifth favourites right now.

The draw for the UEFA Champions League’s round of 16 and beyond will take place on Friday

Real Madrid will feature in the draw after Kylian Mbappe helped them knock out Man City

Real Madrid will feature in the draw after Kylian Mbappe helped them knock out Man City

But Real Madrid are only rated as the fifth most likely team to win the tournament by Opta

But Real Madrid are only rated as the fifth most likely team to win the tournament by Opta

Carlo Ancelotti’s men are given a 10.5% shot of adding to their tally of 15 titles this season, with Barcelona (12.7%) and Inter Milan (12.4%) rated as slightly more realistic contenders.

Paris Saint-Germain (8.8%) are apparently the sixth most likely team to conquer Europe this season, while Feyenoord (0.6%) have the slimmest chance.

Interestingly, Bayer Leverkusen (4.6%) are seen as stronger contenders than German rivals Bayern Munich (4.2%).

Once drawn, the round of 16 matches will take place over two legs between March 4 and 12.

The quarter-final first legs will then be held on April 8 and 9, with the return matches being played the following week.

This season’s semi-finals will start in the final week of April and conclude on May 6 and 7.

Munich will host the final at Bayern’s Allianz Arena on May 31. 

Champions League 2024-25 – Opta supercomputer predictions
Team QFs  SFs Final  Winners
1. Liverpool 70%  58.1% 35.9% 20.2%
2. Arsenal 79% 49.1% 30.3% 16.8%
3. Barcelona 61.5% 47.3% 25.3% 12.7% 
4. Inter Milan 74.9%  42.2%  23.5%  12.4% 
5. Real Madrid 61.6%  35.1%  19.5%  10.5% 
6. PSG 45.8% 34.8% 17.3% 8.8% 
7. Leverkusen 46.1% 20.5% 10.2% 4.6% 
8. Bayern Munich 49.1% 21% 9.8% 4.2% 
9. Atletico Madrid 43.2% 18.4%  8.5%  3.8% 
10. Aston Villa 54.1% 13.1% 3.6%  1.2% 
11. Lille  52.2% 13.4%  3.4%  1.1% 
12. Benfica  22.8% 12.1% 3.4% 1.1% 
13. PSV  26.1%  7.7%  2.6%  0.8% 
14. Dortmund  44.9%  11%  2.6%  0.7% 
15. Club Brugge  48.9% 10.2%  2.4%  0.7% 
16. Feyenoord 20%  6%  1.8%  0.6% 



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