Cairo: Hani Kamal El Din
Afghanistan: Time for Dialogue
Three years ago, after the hasty flight of Ashraf Ghani’s government and the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban movement came to power in Kabul.
During this time, no foreign government has recognized them as a legitimate authority or established diplomatic relations. The UN Security Council sanctions imposed in 1999 remain in effect. The demands put forward by the international community to the Taliban to form an inclusive government, respect the rights of women and girls to education and self-realization remain unfulfilled.
Neither side has achieved its goals. The Taliban are still not recognized, and the demands of the international community have not been met. The situation is deadlocked and to no one’s advantage. Why is this happening?
First, the Taliban view any demands from foreign actors concerning their domestic policy as a manifestation of external dictate. Afghans, especially the Pashtuns who form the core of the Taliban, brought up on the Pashtunwala code of honor, see this as an existential threat. Victory or death in battle against “foreigners imposing their power” is the basis of their philosophy. This is what allowed them not just to survive, but to emerge as de facto victors in several conflicts with the superior forces of many world powers.
Moreover, today the Taliban are experiencing the winner’s syndrome. In their deep understanding, they were fighting not just against foreign troops and a “puppet” government in Kabul, but for the right to determine their own strategy for state building, at their own discretion, and to live according to their own value guidelines. This largely explains the impossibility of imposing on them the demand for women’s rights or the formation of an inclusive government. The Taliban classify these issues as purely internal affairs and therefore not subject to negotiations with foreign governments.
Afghans have learned their lessons from their own history. History has taught them not to trust external forces. Very often they acted as a bargaining chip, becoming victims of the confrontation between global powers.
The Taliban leaders present calls to comply with international norms as a “violation of the sovereignty” of Afghanistan. In addition, the published version of the Doha Agreement, which created a certain legal basis for the subsequent rise of the Taliban movement to power, did not include such requirements as respect for the rights of minorities and women, preservation of the achievements in the field of gender policy in 2001-2021.
Secondly, the international community, in fact, was unable to build a coordinated international policy to isolate the Taliban movement. De facto, many countries perceive the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. Most neighboring states, whose interests in the field of security and economy are closely linked to the situation in Afghanistan, have chosen the path of practical interaction with Kabul. To date, the Taliban has sent diplomats to a number of countries, including China, Russia, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Iran, the UAE and others.
China became the first state to officially recognize a diplomat of the new Afghan administration. In early 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping accepted credentials from Taliban Ambassador to China Bilal Karimi, thereby emphasizing “that Afghanistan should not be excluded from the international community.” In June, Kazakhstan removed the Taliban movement from the list of terrorist organizations. In August, Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov visited Afghanistan. During the talks, the parties signed 35 trade and investment agreements worth a total of $2.5 billion. A logical continuation of the agreements reached was the opening of the Termez International Trade Center on the Uzbek-Afghan border on August 29, with a free trade zone covering a total area of 26 hectares. This is a unique project that has opened up the possibility for entrepreneurs to engage in retail and wholesale trade without paying customs duties on imported goods.
Even India, which has expressed concern about the Taliban’s rise to power in Kabul, is reviving development projects in Afghanistan, such as the planned construction of the $265 million Shakhtut Dam. While not formally recognizing the regime, regional countries are showing interest in gradually developing cooperation with Afghanistan to address such critical issues as resolving disputes over the use of water resources, ensuring border security, and combating transnational terrorism.
Thirdly, many of the Taliban’s decisive steps to position themselves as a responsible political force capable of ensuring relative stability throughout the country, in the Taliban’s view, remain unnoticed or unrecognized by the international community.
However, some of the measures taken by the Taliban must be given credit. The report of the UN Special Coordinator Feridun Sinirlioglu published in November 2023 noted that the security situation in Afghanistan has improved, which has had a positive impact on travel and transportation. The scale of theft by armed groups has sharply decreased and the level of corruption has decreased. Successes are also observed in the sphere of foreign and transit trade. According to the Taliban, the total volume of transit from March to October 2023 reached 913 thousand tons, while in 2020 this figure was only 78 thousand tons, and in 2021 – 229 thousand tons. According to the UN Security Council report published in July of this year, the Taliban were able to significantly increase the volume of budget revenues. According to the General Directorate of Revenue of Afghanistan, from March 21, 2023 to March 20, 2024, the total amount of official revenue collected by the Taliban amounted to about $3 billion, which is 30 percent more than the previous fiscal year, when the total amount reached $2.2 billion.
In order to maintain harmony in society, the Taliban authorities have also shown some desire to respect the rights of national minorities. In particular, despite the ban on the celebration of Navruz at the state level, the Taliban authorities noted that they will not interfere with Afghans wishing to take part in the festivities. In addition, on October 21, 2023, representatives of the Uzbek community in Afghanistan, with the participation of teachers, writers and poets, celebrated the national day of the Uzbek language. The launch of Uzbek-language broadcasts of a number of channels, in particular RTA, Bakhtar and Salam Watandar, was timed to coincide with the holiday.
Of course, this does not mean that all the problems in Afghanistan have been solved with the arrival of the Taliban. There are many reasons for doubt and concern. The problem of terrorism is still relevant. According to the UN Security Council report on Afghanistan published in July of this year, terrorist groups are still operating on Afghan territory, the most serious threat of which is Al-Qaeda[2] and ISIS-Kh[3]. Al-Qaeda operates in many Afghan provinces, mainly in the southeast of the country, it has created a network of new training camps, including in the provinces of Ghazni, Laghman, Parwan and Uruzgan, as well as a base for storing weapons in the Panjshir Gorge. There has also been an increase in the propaganda activities of ISIS-Kh. Since March of this year, the Al-Azaim Foundation of ISIS-Kh has been distributing a specialized publication on the Internet, Sadoi Khorasan, intended for ethnic Tajiks living in Russia and Tajikistan. Socioeconomic problems remain unresolved. The economy has not recovered from the significant decline observed since 2020, the country has a very low level of economic activity and at the same time – high levels of poverty and unemployment. More than 23.7 million people, that is, half of the population of Afghanistan, need humanitarian aid. At the same time, according to the UN World Food Program, 12 million people are currently experiencing acute food shortages. Afghanistan remains the only country in the world where women are prohibited from receiving secondary and higher education.
However, the main question still remains open: what to do next? Will isolation help solve all the accumulated problems? Will international pressure, already weak due to the lack of a unified approach, be able to force the Taliban to make any concessions?
Everything suggests otherwise. Taliban contacts with the outside world will inevitably expand. Objectively, Afghanistan’s neighboring countries will need to resolve issues of security, borders, trade, water use and others. Without dialogue with the Taliban, the international community will only lose in the fight against terrorism. The recent terrorist attack in Moscow’s Crocus City showed that ISIS remains a fully capable force capable of planning, financing and carrying out terrorist attacks on a global scale. Afghanistan’s role in controlling the global drug trade is no less important. According to a report by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime published in November 2023, after the general ban, opium poppy cultivation decreased in all parts of the country from 233 thousand hectares to 10.8 thousand hectares in 2023. The reduction in the area under cultivation led to a 95 percent decrease in opium supplies – from 6.2 thousand tons in 2022 to 333 tons in 2023. After the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan, opium production decreased by 95 percent. Interaction with the Taliban is important to block the growth of synthetic drug production in Afghanistan, which has begun to progress against the backdrop of a reduction in poppy cultivation.
For Afghanistan’s neighbors, dialogue with Kabul on the water issue is important. It cannot be resolved until the Taliban are recognized as a legitimate authority and join interstate agreements on the distribution of water resources in the region.
It is important to view the recognition of the Taliban not as a concession, but as a way to strengthen the responsibility of the Afghan authorities for fulfilling the obligations that will follow from their new international legal status.
Therefore, today more than ever, a new coordinated strategy of the world community is needed, not isolation, but engagement and dialogue with the Taliban movement.
As the UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs and Peacebuilding Rosemary Di Carlo noted following the 3rd International Conference on Afghanistan under the auspices of the UN in Qatar in July 2024, where the delegation of the Taliban movement participated for the first time, “the dialogue that has begun [with the Taliban] on Afghanistan allows us to determine the conditions for its integration into the world community.”
The main emphasis in the new strategy should be on the economy. This will be the key not only to development, but also to long-term peace within Afghanistan. It is necessary to finally learn to draw conclusions from the lessons of history. Afghanistan and its society cannot be transformed by force of arms, forced modernization, or external dictate. The country must follow its own unique path of development. Involving Afghanistan in regional trade, building transport and energy infrastructure will create the necessary economic opportunities for business development, creating new jobs, and restructuring the entire system of political and economic relations for constructive purposes.
In this regard, the model of interaction with the new Afghan authorities demonstrated by Uzbekistan deserves attention. The country, which Tashkent viewed exclusively as a source of threats and challenges from the first years of independence, is now seen as a promising bridge capable of connecting Central and South Asia by the shortest route, opening up new economic opportunities and markets. Uzbekistan is purposefully involving Afghanistan in trade and economic relations, facilitating the training of Afghan specialists on its territory, assisting in solving socio-economic problems, and regularly providing humanitarian aid.
It should be noted that Tashkent’s policy enjoys wide trust within Afghanistan itself. Uzbekistan, which has a keen understanding of the intra-Afghan situation, managed to build a productive dialogue with the Taliban without damaging relations with official Kabul already under the government of Ashraf Ghani. It is thanks to Tashkent’s authority among the Taliban leadership that it was possible to resolve many sensitive issues, including those related to the evacuation of foreign and Afghan citizens after the withdrawal of US and coalition troops.
Such a consistent policy of engaging the de facto Afghan authorities in dialogue is not an end in itself. It is only a tool for assisting Afghanistan in its development as a friendly and responsible neighbor and partner. Uzbekistan is convinced that it cannot afford to be a passive and bystander; the future of security and sustainable development of the entire region is at stake.
Now is a turning point in many ways; the international community needs a new Afghan policy. The main thing is not to miss the chance again; the point of no return has not yet been passed, but the window of opportunity will not remain open forever. Otherwise, a large-scale humanitarian crisis and isolation will only strengthen the position of supporters of a rigidly archaic course in Afghanistan. Therefore, it is so important to give Afghanistan the opportunity to move along a different, creative path. Against the backdrop of growing regionalization trends, strengthening the economic and transport interconnectedness of Central and South Asia, it is necessary to fully include Afghanistan in these processes.
The choice in favor of dialogue is not an easy task, especially given the different voices in Kabul and Kandahar. Patience, a constant search for compromises and mutually acceptable solutions are needed. But there is no other way. The current strategy of the international community has simply exhausted itself. Now it is important to demonstrate a change in priorities, openness to dialogue. We need a well-thought-out and transparent algorithm for the gradual implementation by the international community and the Taliban movement of joint and agreed steps towards each other. The UN and Afghanistan’s neighboring countries should play a key role in this.
