While No. 10 distanced itself from Macron’s timeframe, Britain shares his view that an incremental, cautious approach is necessary. If the ceasefire holds, the next phase would see 30,000 peacekeeping troops, led by Britain and France, deployed in Ukraine, tasked with helping to enforce any agreement.
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However, numerous obstacles remain, including the critical question of US involvement and how far US President Donald Trump is willing to go in supporting such a mission. Russia too has been clear that it is resolutely opposed to any peacekeeping forces in Ukraine.
The argument between Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, at the White House has sent relations between the two countries into a tailspin. By doing so, Trump has staked out a position that many European allies view as siding with Russia’s autocratic leader, Vladimir Putin, by dismissing the security concerns of a friendly country in need of Western help.
In another demoralising social media post on Monday, Trump said “America will not put up with it for much longer” after Zelensky suggested the end to the war is not close.
Zelensky had said earlier that a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia is still “very, very far away”.
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Writing on Truth Social, Trump said: “This is the worst statement that could have been made by Zelensky, and America will not put up with it for much longer!”
Zelensky has rejected calls for Ukraine to agree an immediate ceasefire, saying it would be “failure for everyone” if a cessation of hostilities was not accompanied by detailed security guarantees.
The hope is that by acting as mediators, Starmer and Macron can ease the tensions between Zelensky and Trump. But Starmer has also noted the dangers of flawed agreements with Putin, citing the failure of the Minsk accords on Ukraine in 2014 and 2015.
British officials stress that Zelensky needs to show more respect for Trump to restart dialogue, a move that could unlock essential support for a peace agreement. Zelensky has indicated a willingness to engage with the US, including the possibility of signing a mineral-rights deal, a key element in securing US backing for the peace process.
The most pressing issue for Starmer and Macron’s plan is the question of US security assurances. Trump has given no indication he is prepared to offer assistance to ensure any agreement holds.
The UK is clear that any deployment of troops in Ukraine would require a guarantee from the US, either in the form of air cover or satellite surveillance, to protect their forces in case of Russian retaliation.
While Starmer and Macron are optimistic that Trump could be convinced in private, the situation remains fluid, and the US’s stance will be crucial to the deal’s success.
However, the path to lasting peace remains fraught with uncertainty, and the proposed deal may only be the beginning of a far more complex process.
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