The Oscar Best Picture Hopefuls Race Begins

The Academy Awards are still months away but the best picture landscape is already taking shape. Some question marks remain — for example, both “Nosferatu” and the Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown” have yet to be widely seen. And the staying power of smaller indies like “A Real Pain” and “The Nickel Boys” has yet to be tested. Critical attention could boost films like “I’m Still Here” and “Hard Truths.” And it’s been a great year for animation with films like “Inside Out 2” and “The Wild Robot” — can they break the bias into the lead race?

While we’ll have to wait a bit longer for answers, here’s a look at some of the films that are generating the most discussion to take home the top prize in March. 

Anora
Neon

Anchored by Mikey Madison’s force-of-nature performance in the title role, Sean Baker’s tale of a young stripper’s pursuit of the ultimate payoff examines the rewards, and more vividly, the risks of defining your world in transactional terms. Trying to stake a claim in a category seldom marked by the kind of chaos Baker’s film chronicles is obviously risky, but that’s also what makes it an intriguing choice: above all else, it’s unpredictable. Especially since it already won Cannes’ 2024 Palme d’Or.

Blitz
Apple Original Films

Steve McQueen’s Oscar pedigree was minted back in 2014 with a best picture win for “12 Years a Slave,” and the subject matter of his latest — the story of a mother desperately trying to reunite with her young son during WWII — offers additional catnip for an organization that is historically kind to war-torn sagas. Though it’s only won a handful of smaller festival awards thus far, its Thanksgiving release on Apple+ positions it for fuller appreciation as the Academy starts narrowing its top picks.

The Brutalist 
A24

Brady Corbet has arrived as a major filmmaker with “The Brutalist,” his three-hour-plus statement about antisemitism, the inhumanity of capitalism and the struggle to create meaningful art. The film scored several prizes at Venice, including best director. Corbet gets gut-punching performances out of his actors, including awards-tipped Adrien Brody and Guy Pearce, and creating onscreen magic with his relatively measly budget of under $10 million. A24 are savvy at marketing, and bold reviews and word of mouth will only help.  

Conclave
Focus Features

Edward Berger’s adaptation of the Robert Harris novel has been a buzzy hit on the fall festival circuit, picking up a few audience awards and a rapturous response. Ralph Fiennes stars as the cardinal charged with overseeing the election of a new pope, and the entire ensemble (including Stanley Tucci and John Lithgow) are top-notch. Berger’s last film, “All Quiet on the Western Front,” surprised everyone when it dominated the international feature race in 2022 and even made a bid at the top prize. Don’t be surprised if this high-stakes papal thriller attracts Academy voters and propels it to Oscar gold.

Dune: Part Two
Warner Bros

There’s a lot to be said for being the film nobody dislikes, and “Dune: Part Two” has very few detractors. Also, the 2021 “Dune” overperformed with voters, landing six Oscars. Crafts, performances and direction are excellent across the board, and with “Joker: Folie à Deux” underperforming, Warner Bros. can be expected to throw all its weight behind this powerhouse. Only potential drawbacks are the fact it came out earlier in the year (not a deal-breaker for “Everything Everywhere All at Once”) and that it’s a middle chapter in an ongoing story — will voters want to wait for “Dune: Part Three” in 2026 to reward director Denis Villeneuve and company?

Emilia Pérez
Netflix

The streamer might finally have its winner with Jacques Audiard’s unconventional drama — it’s been winning fans on the festival circuit since its Cannes premiere. While some might find the tale of a drug lord who undergoes gender reassignment surgery then tries to reconnect with her children too offbeat for the Academy, look no further than recent winners like “Everything Everywhere All at Once” or “The Shape of Water.”

Gladiator II
Paramount

Ridley Scott knows how to make an epic. Some 25 years after “Gladiator,” he returns to the arena. It’s a solid plot with a stellar cast leading the charge. It’s a visually stunning film which might dominate below-the-line nominations. As for talk that voters don’t like sequels, there is precedent in “The Godfather Part II” (1974), which took home six Oscars, and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003), which swept the night with 11 wins, and both taking home best picture statues. 

The Room Next Door
Sony Pictures Classics 

Filmmaker Pedro Almodóvar contemplates death and the life and lives we leave behind in the rather minimalist “The Room Next Door.” Essentially a two-hander starring Tilda Swinton as a war correspondent with terminal cancer who chooses assisted suicide and Julianne Moore as her friend who aids her, Almodóvar’s directing and writing is sublime, the acting superb and the film in English, which may sway Academy voters to give the Spanish auteur some much-deserved recognition.  

Saturday Night
Sony Pictures

Jason Reitman’s snapshot of the 90 minutes leading up to the first episode of “Saturday Night Live” in 1975 captures both the tension of mounting an unheard-of live television experience and the nascent personalities of show performers who would go on to become comedy icons. Its who’s-who take on the cast, crew and studio brass feels both overwhelming and reassuringly familiar. Similarly, Reitman’s pedigree as a four-time Oscar nominee (including twice as director) amplifies the spotlight around this project, leaving only the question of whether or not its unpredictable energy can connect with Academy voters.

September 5
Paramount

Swiss director Tim Fehlbaum’s account of the 1972 Munich Olympics hostage crisis could not explore a more urgent theme: at a time when it feels like there’s more skepticism than ever about the national news media, his film directly explores not just the procedural but ethical ramifications of covering historical events that can only be described as “unprecedented.” That said, it has forebears in this category with “Spotlight” and “Argo” — and the virtue of telling an absolutely riveting story, even if it takes place almost entirely in a broadcasting booth.

Sing Sing
A24

Greg Kwedar’s film about prison inmates seeking rehabilitation through the healing power of theater strikes a unique, almost irresistible balance between fact and fiction. Colman Domingo and Paul Raci star opposite real imprisoned individuals, and all of the performances are astonishing. Its scrappy, independent sensibility may mark it as a long shot for Oscar glory, but the story’s empathetic treatment of people seeking redemption against an often-indifferent prison system ensures that its characters linger in the audience’s memory long after they’ve been locked behind bars.

Wicked
Universal

Could Universal snatch another best picture win and make it two years in a row? It’s possible, with Broadway’s biggest musical finally hitting the big screen. It’s been a long time since Hollywood has delivered a truly great adaptation and skeptical viewers have been dazzled by Jon M. Chu’s interpretation. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande are earning raves, Chu’s vision is a spectacle, crafts are on point — it has all the right elements to wow Academy voters.