Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2025 Oscars Predictions: All Categories
Screenshot courtesy Sony Pictures Classics
Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 22, 2024): The Telluride and Venice Film Festivals are set to kick off next week, officially signaling the start of the fall awards season. While many films remain unseen, early buzz and industry rumors hint at a strong year ahead, featuring a mix of mainstream studio projects, musicals, and sequels that could dominate the conversation.
Leading the charge this week is Jacques Audiard’s musical “Emilia Pérez,” a Netflix production that has already garnered significant attention. The film’s unconventional narrative, coupled with Audiard’s distinctive directorial style, could position it as a serious contender in the race. Notably, this could be the streaming giant’s best shot yet at securing its first best picture Oscar after being the arguable “runner-up” for “Roma” (2018) and “The Power of the Dog” (2021). Despite Audiard’s impressive body of work, he has yet to receive his own Oscar nom, adding more juice to its chances.
Another highly anticipated film is Searchlight’s “A Complete Unknown,” a Bob Dylan biopic directed by James Mangold and still in the editing process. Timothée Chalamet takes on the lead role, with Monica Barbaro potentially delivering a breakout performance as Joan Baez. The film is set for a Christmas release, strategically bypassing the festival circuit. This could make it a late-breaking contender in the vein of past successes like “Million Dollar Baby” (2004). However, it will undoubtedly try to steer focus from an array of high-profile sequels, including Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator II,” Todd Phillips’ “Joker: Folie à Deux,” and Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two.”
Watch out for potential surprise category placements for several actors as the season unfolds. Among those that could call an “audible” during the season are Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”), Lady Gaga (“Joker: Folie à Deux”), Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”), Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”), and any of the ensemble cast members of “Emilia Pérez” and “His Three Daughters.” An added unexpected twist to the awards race would create an exciting and unpredictable season.
And let’s not forget potential acquisitions on the horizon, which could come for Pamela Anderson’s lead vehicle, “The Last Showgirl,” or Tim Fehlbaum’s “September 5, ” which looks at the 1972 Munich Olympics hostage crisis from the sports broadcasting perspective.
With such a diverse slate of films and performances, the upcoming awards season promises to be one of the most competitive in recent memory. Stay tuned as the festival premieres begin, setting the stage for what could be a memorable year in cinema.
Overall updates are below. The charts will continue to be updated throughout the week.
Top 5 projected nomination leaders (films): “Emilia Pérez” (12); “A Complete Unknown” (11); “Gladiator II” (9); “Dune: Part Two” and “Joker: Folie à Deux” (7); “Blitz” (6)
Top 3 projected nomination leaders (studios): Netflix (20); Warner Bros. (16); Searchlight Pictures (12)
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
-
Best Picture
Image Credit: Apple “Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker, Alex Coco, Samantha Quan
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Steve McQueen, Arnon Milchan, Yariv Milchan, Eric Fellner, Tim Bevan, Michael Schaefer
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Fred Berger, Bob Bookman, Nina Byrne, Timothée Chalamet, Alan Gasmer, Alex Heineman, Peter Jaysen, James Mangold, Jeff Rosen
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
Jacques Audiard, Pascal Caucheteux, Valérie Schermann, Anthony Vacarello
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Lucy Fisher, David Franzoni, Michael Pruss, Ridley Scott, Douglas Wick
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
Todd Phillips, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Joseph Garner
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios/Orion)
Joslyn Barnes, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, David Levine
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Todd Black, Denzel Washington
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Agustín Almodóvar, Esther GarcíaOscar category page with rankings>>>
-
Director
Image Credit: Warner Bros. Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
James Mangold
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Steve McQueen
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Todd Phillips
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
Ridley Scott ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
-
Actor
Image Credit: Cuba Scott Timothée Chalamet
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Ralph Fiennes
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Joaquin Phoenix
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
Denzel Washington ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
-
Actress
Image Credit: Dick Pope Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste
“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
Mikey Madison
“Anora” (Neon)
Julianne Moore
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Saoirse Ronan ***
“The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
-
Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection Kieran Culkin
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Samuel L. Jackson ***
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Clarence Maclin
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Edward Norton
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Stanley Tucci
“Conclave” (Focus Features)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
-
Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Pedro Almodóvar Monica Barbaro
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Danielle Deadwyler
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Lady Gaga
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
Zoe Saldaña ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Tilda Swinton
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
-
Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival “Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films) ***
Steve McQueen
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard
“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
Mike Leigh
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)
Mohammad RasoulofOscar category page with rankings>>>
-
Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: David Lee/Netflix “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) ***
Jay Cocks, James Mangold (based on “Dylan Goes Electric!” by Elijah Wald)
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios/Orion)
RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes (based on “The Nickel Boys” by Colson Whitehead)
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Virgil Williams, Malcolm Washington (based on the play by August Wilson)
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Pedro Almodóvar (based on “What Are You Going Through” by Sigrid Nunez)
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield (based on “The Sing Sing Follies” by John H. Richardson and “Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code” by Brent Buell)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
-
Animated Feature
Image Credit: Focus Features “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens, Gregory Zalcman
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
Kelsey Mann, Mark Nielsen
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
Adam Elliot, Liz Kearney
“Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
Morgan Neville, Caitrin Rogers, Pharrell Williams
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***
Chris Sanders, Jeff HermannOscar category page with rankings>>>
-
Production Design
Image Credit: Apple “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
François Audouy, Regina Graves
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Arthur Max, Elli Griff
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
Mark Friedberg, Karen O’HaraOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
-
Cinematography
Image Credit: Focus Features “The Brutalist” (No U.S. Distribution)
Lol Crawley
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Phedon Papamichael
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
Greig Fraser
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Paul Guilhaume
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
John MathiesonOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
-
Costume Design
Image Credit: Universal Pictures “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
Colleen Atwood
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Jacqueline Durran
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Arianne Phillips
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
Jacqueline West
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Paul TazewellOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
-
Film Editing
Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Peter Sciberras
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
TBA
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
Juliette Welfling
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Sam Restivo, Claire Simpson
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
Jeff GrothOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
-
Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Sony Pictures “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
“The Substance” (Mubi)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
-
Sound
Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
-
Visual Effects
Image Credit: 20th Century Studios “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
-
Original Score
Image Credit: “Conclave” (Courtesy of Ascot Elite Entertainment) “Conclave” (Focus Features)
Volker Bertelmann
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Harry Gregson-Williams
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Alexandre Desplat
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Jon Batiste
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***
Kris BowersOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
-
Original Song
Image Credit: Netflix “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
“Piece by Piece” from “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
“Kiss the Sky” from “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
-
Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sundance Institute “Dahomey” (Mubi)
dir. Mati Diop
“Daughters” (Netflix)
dir. Angela Patton, Natalie Rae
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
dir. Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie
“Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (Warner Bros.)
dirs. Ian Bonhôte, Peter Ettedgui
“Will & Harper” (Netflix) ***
dir. Josh GreenbaumOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
-
International Feature
Image Credit: Petit Chaos “All We Imagine as Light” from India (Janus Films/Sideshow)
dir. Payal Kapadia
“Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix) ***
dir. Jacques Audiard
“Flow” from Latvia (Janus Films/Sideshow)
dir. Gints Zilbalodis
“Kneecap” from Ireland (Sony Pictures Classics)
dir. Rich Peppiatt
“The Seed of a Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon)
dir. Mohammad RasoulofOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
