Following a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) on Wednesday, foreign secretary Vikram Misri announced that the Indus Waters Treaty has been held in abeyance till Islamabad acts on terror organisations on its soil. A number of other diplomatic steps were announced that include declaring the Pakistani army, navy and air attachés as persona non grata and reducing Pakistani High Commission strength from 55 to 30. Visas for Pakistani nationals have been cancelled and the Wagah-Attari border has been closed.
Defence minister Rajnath Singh vowed a resolute response to the attack that left at least 26 dead, after terrorists swarmed a popular tourist spot near Pahalgam town. He said the civilians were targeted for their religion and a strong response will be delivered in the “near future,” including to those involved in the conspiracy.
“India cannot be intimidated by such terrorist activities. The people responsible for such acts will get a resolute reply in the near future,” the minister said. Misri said the CCS reviewed the overall security situation and has directed the forces to maintain high vigil. “It resolved that the perpetrators of the attack will be brought to justice and their sponsors held to account,” he said. Misri added that as with the recent extradition of Tahawwur Rana, India will be unrelenting in the pursuit of those who have committed acts of terror, or conspired to make them possible.
The government is also expected to call an all-party meeting on Thursday. As India looks to search out perpetrators of the attack, and a large-scale operation is on, all available evidence — including intelligence intercepts — is being examined to establish the chain of command. People familiar with the matter said there is a clear cross-border connection.
Robust Military Might
Two of the four to five terrorists believed to be involved in the attack are suspected to be Pakistani nationals. The remaining received arms training in camps across the border. Misri also said the CCS has been briefed on the cross-border links and noted that the attack has come in the wake of successful elections in the Union Territory. Military options on the table include a suspension of the ceasefire agreement on the Line of Control (LoC) to punish Pakistani authorities that facilitate infiltration from terror launch pads.However, given the gravity of the attack – such large-scale violence on tourists is unprecedented – stronger options, such as targeting the leadership of terrorist groups that operate from Pakistan, will be under discussion, the people cited said. In the past two instances when Pakistan-based terrorist groups crossed the red line, Indian military action targeted terror launch pads and a training establishment. In 2016, after the Uri attack, the Indian Army carried out shallow strikes to take down launch pads where terrorists were housed before getting pushed across the border. In 2019, after thP carried out against a terrorist traiulwama attack, aerial strikes were Impacts Valuation ning camp in Balakot.
This time, the military option could include targeting the headquarters and leadership of terrorist groups such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), which is suspected to be behind the attack. In 2019, the option of hitting the well-protected LeT headquarters in Bahawalpur was discussed but taken off the table, with one consideration being the possibility of collateral, civilian damage, according to people in the know.
With the Pahalgam attack, another line has been crossed, with civilians being targeted by terrorists suspected to be trained and commanded by aPakistan-based group. The defence minister said the conspirators behind the attack will not be spared. “We will not only reach those who have carried out this incident, we will also reach those who, sitting behind veils, have conspired to commit such nefarious acts on the soil of India,” Singh said.
Other options include combined tri-services action against terrorist launch pads, training establishments and leadership operating across the border. Higher up the escalatory ladder are options such as limited border action for taking over and securing terrorist infiltration routes like the Haji Pir pass on the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
India is much more prepared to act against terrorist groups in Pakistan than in 2019, given the addition of assets such as Rafale fighter jets, the S-400 air defence system and a range of stand-off weapons like loitering munitions, said people with knowledge of the matter. For instance, the Rafales, equipped with the 300 km-plus range SCALP ground attack missiles, can strike targets with pinpoint accuracy deep inside Pakistan, while still flying over Indian territory.
Diplomacy
Among the steps taken, suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty ends a unique 64-year-old watersharing agreement that has survived wars. The pact, signed in 1960 and brokered by the World Bank, governs the use of six rivers in the Indus Basin, with three allocated to each nation. Usage is heavily skewed in Pakistan’s favour and may not impact India.
Pakistani nationals will not be permitted to travel to India under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme visas. Pakistani nationals currently in India have been given 48 hours to leave India. The defence/military, naval and air advisers in the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi have a week to leave India. India will be withdrawing its own military advisers from Islamabad.
