Vinicius Jr’s Ballon d’Or snub gives Man City-Real Madrid Champions League rivalry a bitter edge
Your support helps us to tell the story
From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it’s investigating the financials of Elon Musk’s pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, ‘The A Word’, which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.
At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.
The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.
Your support makes all the difference.
In difficulty, Ruben Dias saw the opportunity for beauty. In a glamour tie, Pep Guardiola saw a punishment that he readily accepted Manchester City deserved. Their meetings with Real Madrid have been quarter-finals or semi-finals. In each of the last three seasons, the victor has gone on to win the Champions League. Now rivalries are renewed in a knockout play-off. City are unaccustomed to facing Real at a stage that also includes Club Brugge and Brest.
City, who were 45 minutes from elimination from an oversized group, know the alternative was worse. Guardiola said: “When you finish 22nd, you cannot ask for any favour.” City didn’t get one in the draw, either, though as the alternative to Madrid was Bayern Munich, none was possible. “Always I believe what happens in football, normally you have to deserve it. And we didn’t deserve it.”
Not when their only Champions League wins this year have come against clubs from Slovakia, Czechia and Belgium. For defender Dias, whose four previous campaigns in Manchester produced four league titles, two Champions League finals and one treble, there was some understatement when he described it as “maybe the most difficult season so far”.
City have lost 11 games in three-and-a-half months. The Portuguese nevertheless thinks they can win the Champions League. “I’m a firm believer that even in the most difficult scenario, the most difficult beginning, you can still achieve something beautiful in the end,” he said. “And right now we’re still in that position.”
Given the way City have played since October, that requires a suspension of disbelief. Guardiola described his team as an “incredible machine” for years. Not now, though. He isn’t sure which team will turn up. “Now it’s like, I don’t know,” he said. “There are a lot of ups and downs.”
More downs than ups, really, but Dias sees proven winners around him. “I think it’s a question of believing in what we have in the dressing room,” he said. “We have loads of guns, we just need to use them the right way.” Shots have been fired before: nine of them into the Real net in their last three visits to the Etihad alone. But City’s biggest gun, Erling Haaland, has not scored for them against Real, while the 15-time champions of Europe have added to their artillery with the sharpshooter who is faster than a cannonball, Kylian Mbappe.
Then a teenager, Mbappe was instrumental in the elimination of another old City team when Monaco progressed at their expensive in 2017. But the Frenchman only scored once in three appearances for Paris Saint-Germain against City. It is not in Dias’s nature to sound worried and he said: “We’ve played against him many times before and even then it was not just [Mbappe who was] the main threat. It was Neymar at some point, then [Lionel] Messi as well.”
Now Mbappe may not be Real’s threat. There is an extra dimension to Real’s return to the Etihad after Rodri pipped Vinicius Junior to the Ballon d’Or, and the Spanish club boycotted the ceremony in petulant protest. But Rodri is missing now: instead of going to Leyton Orient for the weekend, he visited New Orleans for the Super Bowl.
Meanwhile, City’s trump card against Vinicius used to come in the shape of Kyle Walker, who took on the Brazilian in a series of sprints. Now, however, Walker is at AC Milan. City may miss the defender he was, if not the one he is now. “He was obviously a big personality, especially when it came to times like this, he was always one to show up and show his face and be there for the team,” added Dias. “So now it’s a time for another to step up.” Manuel Akanji may be the likeliest candidate after Matheus Nunes had a traumatic time at right-back against PSG’s Bradley Barcola.
And Mbappe and Vinicius are joined by Rodrygo, the man whose late double deprived City of a place in the 2022 final, and Jude Bellingham, who was also on the Ballon d’Or podium. “I think it’s impossible for 90 minutes, 180 minutes or 200 minutes – it depends on extra time – to control these four players,” said Guardiola. Especially given City’s defensive record, with 12 goals conceded in their last five Champions League games and 41 in 22 in all competitions.
So it feels as though the balance of power between the two clubs has shifted dramatically in the direction of Madrid. In the last three ties, it has been a moot point who ranked as favourites. Now there should be no doubt City are underdogs.
Guardiola nevertheless cited their recent record. “We have good results and bad results,” he said, reflecting on eight games, the last bringing a penalty shootout defeat after a 1-1 draw. “We’ve won four, drew three, lost one, but at the end, we’ve got to go through.”
Which, since 2020, they have done twice at Real’s expense. “It’s not normal to play the same rivals all the time,” added Guardiola. It has led to the suggestion that this is the modern-day Champions League Clasico. But then these teams started the season as the two favourites for the competition. Only one will be in the last 16.
“This year we have fallen more than normal,” said Guardiola. “We have struggled a lot.” And Real remain Real. When they lost 4-0 at the Etihad in May 2023, there was the temptation to wonder if it was the end of an era for them. Instead, they won the Champions League the following year. Now Real have the chance to make sure it is the end for this City team.
