Your support helps us to tell the story
From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it’s investigating the financials of Elon Musk’s pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, ‘The A Word’, which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.
At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.
The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.
Your support makes all the difference.
Narcisa Pricope is the Professor of Geography and Land Systems Science and Associate Vice President for Research, Mississippi State University.
Valentine’s Day and chocolate go hand-in-hand. But the future of this sweet treat is at threat, with prices likely to rise in response.
The cacao tree, source of the cocoa beans used to make chocolate, thrives in humid conditions.
However, these conditions are under threat in key cocoa-producing regions like northeastern Brazil, where increasing aridity is jeopardizing the crop and the livelihoods of those who cultivate it.
This worrying trend isn’t limited to Brazil. Across West Africa, responsible for 70 per cent of global cacao production, and in other cocoa-growing areas like the Americas and Southeast Asia, shifting moisture levels are disrupting the delicate balance required for successful cacao cultivation.
These regions, vital to global food security and biodiversity, are facing the slow but relentless advance of aridity.
This in turn will mean that price increases are likely to be passed on to the consumer. It comes as shoppers spoke out in fury when chocolate bar Freddo – fondly remembered by Brits for selling for just 10p – was spotted in a shop on sale for £1.
That marks a ten-fold increase to when it was introduced onto shelves 20 years ago.
With aridity, a recent UN report paints a stark picture. Over the past 30 years, over three-quarters of the Earth’s landmass has become drier. Drylands, now covering 41 per cent of the planet’s land area, have expanded by an alarming 1.7 million square miles (4.3 million square kilometers) during that period – an area roughly half the size of Australia.
This creeping dryness is not just a climate phenomenon. It’s a long-term transformation that may be irreversible and that carries devastating consequences for ecosystems, agriculture and livelihoods worldwide.
Aridity, while often thought of as purely a climate phenomenon, is the result of a complex interplay among human-driven factors. These include greenhouse gas emissions, land use practices and the degradation of critical natural resources, such as soil and biodiversity.
These interconnected forces have been accelerating the transformation of once-productive landscapes into increasingly arid regions, with consequences that ripple across ecosystems and economies.
Greenhouse gas emissions: A global catalyst
Human-induced climate change is the primary driver of rising aridity.
Greenhouse gas emissions, particularly from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation, increase global temperatures. Rising temperatures, in turn, cause moisture to evaporate at a faster rate. This heightened evaporation reduces soil and plant moisture, exacerbating water scarcity – even in regions with moderate rainfall.
Aridity began accelerating globally in the 1950s, and the world has seen a pronounced shift over the past three decades.
This process is particularly stark in regions already prone to dryness, such as Africa’s Sahel region and the Mediterranean. In these areas, reduced precipitation – combined with increased evaporation – creates a feedback loop: Drier soils absorb less heat, leaving the atmosphere warmer and intensifying arid conditions.
Unsustainable land use practices: A hidden accelerator
Aridity is also affected by how people use and manage land.
Unsustainable agricultural practices, overgrazing and deforestation strip soils of their protective vegetation cover, leaving them vulnerable to erosion. Industrial farming techniques often prioritize short-term yields over long-term sustainability, depleting nutrients and organic matter essential for healthy soils.
For example, in cocoa-producing regions like northeastern Brazil, deforestation to make room for agriculture disrupts local water cycles and exposes soils to degradation. Without vegetation to anchor it, topsoil – critical for plant growth – washes away during rainfall or is blown away by winds, taking with it vital nutrients.
These changes create a vicious cycle: Degraded soils also hold less water and lead to more runoff, reducing the land’s ability to recover.
The soil-biodiversity connection
Soil, often overlooked in discussions of climate resilience, plays a critical role in mitigating aridity.
Healthy soils act as reservoirs, storing water and nutrients that plants depend on. They also support biodiversity below and above ground. A single teaspoon of soil contains billions of microorganisms that help cycle nutrients and maintain ecological balance.
However, as soils degrade under aridity and mismanagement, this biodiversity diminishes. Microbial communities, essential for nutrient cycling and plant health, decline. When soils become compacted and lose organic matter, the land’s ability to retain water diminishes, making it even more susceptible to drying out.
In short, the loss of soil health creates cascading effects that undermine ecosystems, agricultural productivity and food security.
Cocoa is just one crop affected
Other key agricultural zones, including the breadbaskets of the world, are also at risk. In the Mediterranean, Africa’s Sahel and parts of the U.S. West, aridity already undermines farming and biodiversity.
By 2100, up to 5 billion people could live in drylands – nearly double the current population in these areas, due to both population growth and expansion of drylands as the planet warms. This puts immense pressure on food systems. It can also accelerate migration as declining agricultural productivity, water scarcity and worsening living conditions force rural populations to move in search of opportunities.
Aridity’s ripple effects also extend far beyond agriculture. Ecosystems, already strained by deforestation and pollution, are stressed as water resources dwindle. Wildlife migrates or dies, and plant species adapted to moister conditions can’t survive. The Sahel’s delicate grasslands, for instance, are rapidly giving way to desert shrubs.
On a global scale, economic losses linked to aridification are staggering. In Africa, rising aridity contributed to a 12 per cent drop in gross domestic product from 1990 to 2015. Sandstorms and dust storms, wildfires and water scarcity further burden governments, exacerbating poverty and health crises in the most affected regions.
Aridity is not inevitable, nor are its effects completely irreversible. But coordinated global efforts are essential to curb its progression.
Countries can work together to restore degraded lands by protecting and restoring ecosystems, improving soil health and encouraging sustainable farming methods.
Communities can manage water more efficiently through rainwater harvesting and advanced irrigation systems that optimize water use. Governments can reduce the drivers of climate change by investing in renewable energy.
Continued international collaboration, including working with businesses, can help share technologies to make these actions more effective and available worldwide.
So, as you savor chocolate this Valentine’s Day, remember the fragile ecosystems behind it. The price of cocoa in early 2025 was near its all-time high, due in part to dry conditions in Africa. Without urgent action to address aridity, this scenario may become more common, and cocoa – and the sweet concoctions derived from it – may well become a rare luxury.
Collective action against aridity isn’t just about saving chocolate – it’s about preserving the planet’s capacity to sustain life.
