1. Dawn Service looks to be too classy for these. The three-year-old, on a Magic Millions path, is already a listed winner at Flemington. That saw him jump a $3.70 chance in the group 2 Stutt Stakes. He raced flat, having come to the end of his preparation. Perhaps the mile found him out, too. The blue blood colt by Justify out of Sunlight could have trialled a touch better, but that’s just him. Going back through his trials before his debut, they didn’t jump out visually. Tim Clark has ridden Dawn Service in three of his fives starts, but the stable elected to take the 3kg claim of Ben Osmond. Looks astute. 10. Diddle Dumpling has had a six-week freshen since finally breaking her maiden. That was as a $1.24 chance. Job done. That could give her the confidence to go right on with it now. Looked great when coasting to the line in a recent Rosehill trial. Talented filly.
How to play it: Dawn Service to win.
Race 6 – 3.25PM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (2400 METRES)
3. Gilded Water is a well-found early favourite; justifiably so given his profile. The four-year-old is a stayer going places. He ground out a determined win at Kembla Grange at his first run in Australia over 2000m and raced like he wanted 2400m already. It shouldn’t come as any great surprise given that his half-brother is Sydney Cup winner Circle Of Fire, who went from a 78-rated horse to a 112-rated horse in seven runs. Gilded Water is potentially on a similar trajectory. The runner-up from Kembla, Alacance, was subsequently narrowly beaten in Saturday’s Christmas Cup in listed company to frank the form line. 5. Be Real was beaten four lengths and has since won at Rosehill, which looks another key form reference for this. Expecting him to win and can mark him even money. 10. California Grass has improved with each run this time back, relishing getting out to 2400m at her past two starts. Should hold her form.
How to play it: Gilded Water to win.
Race 7 – 4PM CAPTIVANT @ KIA ORA HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
7. Bright Red finds a race that lacks depth. Expecting her to improve again third up out to the mile, which makes her the horse to beat. The four-year-old doesn’t have a lot of upside and boasts just three wins from 17 starts, but there aren’t too many other places to turn. First up she worked home into third over 1300m at the midweeks before trying hard in defeat behind Shangri La Spring, a progressive three-year-old that is undefeated this campaign. Draws a soft gate, which should see her camp midfield. Ride her too close and it can dull her finish, so it’s a delicate balance that Zac Lloyd has been tasked with getting right. Would have had 1. Invincible Spy on top at the early price if not for 9. O’Ziggy being in the race and drawing underneath him. That could leave Invincible Spy vulnerable late. That pair does ensure a genuine clip for Bright Red, however. Invincible Spy has beaten home Bright Red and 6. Fiddlers Green in the past. He’ll improve sharply off his first up run.
How to play it: Bright Red to win.
Race 8 – 4.40PM JAMES SQUIRE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
8. Uzziah was beaten 10 lengths in the Festival Stakes last start at Rosehill, however, he had a number of excuses. He pulled up slow to recover, two out of five lame, and was said to have not appreciated the soft track. Respect that he jumped a $13 chance in a group 3. The six-year-old has been given three weeks to freshen up from that, having missed a run in the Ingham as an emergency. He’ll appreciate a drop back in grade, getting back onto a firmer track and coming back to 1400m shouldn’t be an issue. He doesn’t map to have too much company up top and looks well paired with Tim Clark. 1. Palmetto was great first up last campaign, but that was off an eight-week let-up. This time it’s a 28-week spell. Has trialled well. 9. Ang Pow was no match for Uzziah at Newcastle first up before improving second up when second to I’mintowin. He was beaten three lengths on the heavy track. Trending the right way.
How to play it: Uzziah to win.
Race 9 – 5.20PM TOYOTA FORKLIFTS HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
1. Our Kobison had no excuses in the Starlight Stakes last start other than being eight weeks between runs. That told late. He settled in behind the speed where the leader, Eagle Nest, pinched it from in front. It was impossible for the backmarkers. That form line was franked in the Razor Sharp, providing the first three home. Even Aberlour, which ran last, subsequently ran well out to 1400m. Our Kobison does have a history of improving with a run under his belt. Maps well, gets in well after the claim of Molly Bourke, who rides the five-year-old for the first time, and he has a great record at Randwick. 8. Time To Boogie produced a career-best run first up last campaign. It was over 1000m in a race that he controlled from the outside of the leader, but he is explosive fresh. Wasn’t able to replicate that thereafter, but respect his SP profile of $2.40 and $1.30. Has had tieback surgery since then. 7. In Flight wasn’t beaten far by Our Kobison in the Starlight. Strips fitter for that.
How to play it: Our Kobison to win.
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Race 10 – 5.55PM TAB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
8. Little Beginnings didn’t handle the heavy track at Rosehill last start. He kept trying, but his wheels were spinning. Forget that. It’s not the first time he has failed in the going. Instead, respect how firm he was in betting despite that. He jumped a $3.40 second favourite. The race was carved up by scratchings, granted, but the market has been quick to dismiss him on the back of that. The reason he was so well found was because of an impressive first-up win at the midweeks. He has a few tricks, so it is significant that apprentice Ben Osmond sticks with the five-year-old. The main knock on 13. Yorkshire is his price. This is a deeper race than his early quote suggests. He’s a smart horse with three wins from four starts, but is slightly up in grade and all of his previous form is on wet tracks. It is unlikely to be as straightforward for 9. Accredited from the wide gate as it was at Warwick Farm last start. He was sent to the front, ridden like the best horse and romped home at $1.55.
How to play it: Little Beginnings each way.
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au
