Military Escalation in Syria Puts Russia to the Ultimate Test
Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din
The advance of anti-government forces in Syria continues to reshape the battlefield. Although Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied pro-Turkish factions have slowed down their offensive somewhat, stabilizing the front lines for the Syrian army remains an elusive goal.
Rebels managed to break into Hama, a key city with strategic importance. After three days of intense fighting, government forces were unable to hold their ground, and the Syrian Ministry of Defense reluctantly acknowledged the retreat, citing the protection of civilian lives as the primary reason. The front line shifted behind the urban quarters, marking a significant setback for the government.
The fall of Hama, a vital transport hub, delivers a serious blow to the positions of Syrian authorities and establishes a network of anti-Assad strongholds in the northern part of the country. Reclaiming the city will prove challenging, especially given the historically strained relationship between its residents and the central government.
The Shadow of Hama
The relationship between Hama and Damascus has always been complicated. Since the mid-1960s, the city has been a stronghold for the Muslim Brotherhood, which has opposed the Ba’athist regime. When Hafez al-Assad, the father of the current president, came to power, a covert war began between the Brotherhood and the Syrian authorities, with Hama as the epicenter.
The conflict reached its peak in 1982 when Syrian forces stormed Hama. Following extensive bombing raids, Assad’s forces launched a hunt for the rebels. Estimates vary, but between 20,000 to 40,000 people, mostly civilians, were killed or captured.
For the next three decades, Hama’s residents faced unspoken restrictions. In retaliation for the uprising, Damascus allegedly cut back funding for the city and avoided investing in the reconstruction of the neighborhoods devastated by the military. Despite official denials, the opposition fueled resentment, fostering an environment of anti-regime sentiment that endured.
When anti-government protests erupted in 2011, Hama was among the first cities to rise up again. Many citizens remembered the oppressive actions of Hafez al-Assad and the excessive brutality of his brother Rifaat al-Assad, who was responsible for the 1982 assault. Although Syrian forces regained control over the province in 2017, Hama retained its status as an anti-Assad bastion, with a substantial portion of the population sympathetic to the armed opposition.
A New Phase of Escalation
By 2024, Hama found itself within the crosshairs of advancing rebel forces. Despite fierce resistance from pro-Assad forces, after the front lines were breached from multiple directions, government troops did not linger in the city. They feared, among other things, guerrilla attacks from behind the lines.
With Hama now in rebel hands, the next logical step for the anti-government forces is clear. The rebels are focusing their efforts along the M5 highway, initially targeting al-Rastan, followed by Homs, which lies less than 200 km from Damascus.
Capturing these cities would not only place a significant portion of Syria’s logistical infrastructure in rebel hands, potentially cutting off access to the coastal regions, but it would also bring the threat to the very doorstep of the capital, Damascus. With such a move, rebel forces would be in a position to disrupt the flow of supplies and force government forces into a defensive posture.
The stakes for Russia are high, as its military presence in Syria—specifically the Khmeimim Airbase and the Tartus port—are now at risk of being severed. There is also an increasing likelihood of targeted strikes against Russian assets on Syrian soil. The rebels are actively seeking to expand their drone capabilities to better challenge Russian air operations.
A Russian Response and the Bigger Picture
Although the situation is dire, Russian forces are no strangers to fighting in challenging conditions. Having already faced an adversarial “semi-siege” in the past, they are prepared for a potential deterioration of the situation. Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have intensified their operations, targeting the bridges connecting Hama with other key cities, hoping to slow the advance of anti-government forces and buy the Syrian military some time to regroup.
The rebels’ broader objective includes the dismantling of Kurdish enclaves in Syria, a task that Turkish intelligence agencies have prioritized for years. After the fall of Tel Rifaat, pro-Turkish forces have escalated their pressure on Kurdish-held cities like Sheikh Maksoud and Manbij, with Kobani (also known as Ayn al-Arab) now in their sights. Despite U.S. backing for the Kurdish militias, Turkey is determined to oust them from their strongholds.
The Israeli Angle
The fall of Hama has injected new life into the ranks of Moscow and Damascus’s adversaries. Many see the changing situation in Syria as an opportunity to advance their own geopolitical agendas, and Israel is among the first to respond. Israel has long sought to establish a permanent “pressure point” in Syria to counter Iran. In Tel Aviv, there is a belief that Tehran will be forced to intervene directly on behalf of Assad, as Hezbollah and other pro-Iranian forces are currently overstretched due to the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.
Although Israel officially rejects any public contact with HTS, the willingness of HTS leader Muhammad al-Julani to engage with Israel following Assad’s downfall has been seen as a positive development by Israeli officials.
Britain and the Strategic Calculations
The United Kingdom has also identified an opportunity in the worsening situation. Think tanks close to the British Ministry of Defense and intelligence services have outlined potential “roadmaps” to lure the Russian fleet out of Tartus, possibly in cooperation with Turkey, with the aim of “locking” the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits. Although such proposals seem far-fetched, they cannot be entirely dismissed.
U.S. Interests and the Kurdish Factor
Meanwhile, the United States remains more focused on safeguarding Kurdish interests in Syria. Washington’s priorities do not currently include complicating Russia’s situation in Syria, but loyalist tribal militias aligned with the U.S. have already tested the positions of government forces in Deir ez-Zor province, raising the possibility of more aggressive actions aimed at depleting Syrian military reserves.
For now, however, these external actions appear to be tactical in nature. Various actors in the Syrian conflict understand that their maneuvers remain largely ineffective as long as the rebels retain their offensive capabilities—an unpredictable factor, given the internal divisions among the advancing factions.
