Art and culture

2025 Oscars Best Supporting Actress Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.


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Best Supporting Actress Commentary (Updated Jan. 9, 2025): The SAG lineup for supporting actress was the morning’s most dramatic battlefield, with a mix of expected names and shocking omissions. Joining Grande and Monica are SAG and Oscar winner Jamie Lee Curtis (“The Last Showgirl”), Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”), and Zoë Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”), who is riding high after her Golden Globe win on Sunday.

While Saldaña’s nomination further cements her momentum, the omission of her co-star Selena Gomez was a surprise. Gomez, who had been considered a potential double nominee for her roles in “Emilia Pérez” and “Only Murders in the Building,” now faces an uphill climb, with her BAFTA nomination prospects becoming critical for her Oscar campaign.

Equally surprising was Margaret Qualley’s snub for “The Substance.” The actress has been leading the critics’ awards tally alongside Saldaña, but her absence here raises questions about the film’s overall strength in the race. Isabella Rossellini’s brief but memorable turn as a feisty nun in “Conclave” also failed to land a spot, despite strong buzz.

One notable comeback story is Deadwyler, who had been slipping in the awards conversation after being snubbed by the Golden Globes and missing the BAFTA longlist. Her nomination for the August Wilson adaptation “The Piano Lesson,” directed by debut filmmaker Malcolm Washington, reignites her Oscar hopes. This marks a potential redemption arc following her widely criticized Oscar snub for “Till” in 2022.

Curtis, meanwhile, continues to ride a wave of goodwill for her performance as an aging Las Vegas showgirl in “The Last Showgirl.” While some pundits initially dismissed her chances — citing her recent Oscar win for “Everything Everywhere All at Once” — her SAG nod confirms the strength of her follow-up performance. As history shows, “afterglow” nominations are not uncommon for recent winners, especially when the subsequent role exceeds expectations, as Curtis’ has — see Sandra Bullock (“Gravity”), Gary Oldman (“Mank”) or Eddie Redmayne (“The Danish Girl”).

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.

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