2025 Oscars Best Director Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Best Director commentary (Updated Feb. 27, 2025): Brady Corbet dominated early directing prizes, sweeping nearly every award leading up to the televised ceremonies — until Sean Baker stormed in and took the DGA, historically the most accurate predictor of the Oscar winner. If Baker wins, he stands a chance at taking home four Oscars in one night, making him only the second person ever to do so (after Walt Disney) and the first to achieve it for the same film. The Academy loves to anoint visionary indie filmmakers (i.e., Chloé Zhao), and Baker fits that bill.

So, unless we’re in for a Mike Nichols-style win, where Baker takes director solely. At the same time, if his film loses best picture (see 1967’s “The Graduate” losing to “In the Heat of the Night”), the likeliest scenario is: If Baker wins director, “Anora” will take best picture. Or, if Corbet wins director, “Anora” or “Conclave” could still take picture — but you must factor in what’s winning screenplay. It’s a game of mix and match, and right now, the math favors Baker, but I’m ready for more surprises.

However, Corbet’s BAFTA win cannot be ignored. The last time a BAFTA-winning director (also Oscar-nominated) lost the Oscar? Sam Mendes for “1917” (2019).

Will Win: Sean Baker (“Anora”)

Could Win: Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”)
Should Win: Coralie Fargeat (“The Substance”)
Should Have Been Nominated: Robert Eggers (“Nosferatu”); Mohammad Rasoulof (“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”); RaMell Ross (“Nickel Boys”)

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.