Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
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2025 Golden Globes Predictions:
Film & TV Categories
“Emilia Perez” (Courtesy of Saint-Laurent Productions)
Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 1, 2024): November is here, which means awards season is heating up with the approach of crucial precursors and guild awards nominations. Among the most anticipated is the Golden Globes, which will celebrate its 82nd ceremony this January.
The submission deadline for film and TV entries is Monday, Nov. 4, and the race is wide open. This year’s field promises a mix of beloved and breakout movies and programs, attracting Hollywood’s biggest stars to the competition.
On the film side, the comedy and musical categories are shaping up to be exceptionally competitive. Netflix’s “Emilia Pérez,” Neon’s “Anora” and Universal’s “Wicked” are expected to vie for the top prize, with stars like Karla Sofía Gascón, Mikey Madison, and Cynthia Erivo in contention. Interestingly, the lead comedy actor category seems less crowded. Jesse Plemons, who won Cannes’ best actor award for his role in “Kinds of Kindness,” leads the charge and could bolster his Oscar prospects with a win.
That differs in the drama categories. The lead actor race is packed with talent, including Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”), Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”), Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”), and Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”). For lead actress, names like Angelina Jolie (“Maria”), Tilda Swinton (“The Room Next Door”), and Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”) are likely to have their nominations locked and loaded. With the expansion to six slots in every category, there’s room for surprises.
Supporting actress is another field to watch, with potential nods for Selena Gomez (“Emilia Pérez”), Ariana Grande (“Wicked”), and Jennifer Lopez (“Unstoppable”), possibly occupying an entire category. And despite disappointing reviews and box office numbers for “Joker 2,” Lady Gaga could still snag a nomination for her acting or the original song “Folie à Deux.” Imagine the ratings with these four powerhouses.
The supporting actor category also boasts strong contenders, such as Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) and Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”), who could be battling it out all season long. Known for their occasional “outside-the-box” picks, Globe voters could go with someone like Josh O’Connor from “Challengers,” possibly alongside co-star Zendaya in lead actress and the film in best picture (comedy).
Turning to TV, recent Emmy winners like FX’s “Shogun,” HBO/Max’s “Hacks” and Netflix’s “Baby Reindeer” look solid for noms. However, the Globes’ voters have a soft spot for new releases. Netflix’s miniseries “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story,” NBC’s upcoming mockumentary “St. Denis Medical,” and Apple’s summer hit “Presumed Innocent” may also emerge in various categories. Returning favorites and familiar IP like Netflix’s “Squid Game,” Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building,” and HBO/Max’s “The Penguin,” featuring Colin Farrell, are sure to make an impact.
And we have the second year for the cinematic box office achievement and stand-up comedy categories to consider, likely to have movies like “Inside Out 2,” now the highest-grossing animated film of all time, and comedians like Adam Sandler, and even Globes host Nikki Glaser, hoping for mentions.
The new membership of the Golden Globes has improved the quality and diversity of choices.
In 2020, the Globes faced scrutiny over diversity, transparency, and ethical practices within the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA). Since then, the organization has implemented a comprehensive reform process to enhance inclusivity, accountability, and transparency. Last year’s ceremony attracted roughly 10 million viewers across all platforms with seven days of delayed viewing, marking the largest audience since 2020, per Nielsen.
Glenn Weiss and Ricky Kirshner of White Cherry Entertainment are returning as executive producers and showrunners for the 2025 awards telecast. Dick Clark Productions will produce the event. The 82nd Golden Globe Awards will be held on Sunday, Jan. 5, and will be hosted by Nikki Glaser.
Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.
Variety parent company PMC owns Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Prods. in a joint venture with Eldridge.
FILM CATEGORIES
Motion Picture (Drama)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Ascot Elite Entertainment And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 “Conclave” (Focus Features) 2 “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) 3 “The Brutalist” (A24) 4 “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) 5 “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) 6 “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) Next in Line 7 “The Room Next Door” 8 “Babygirl” 9 “I’m Still Here” 10 “The Piano Lesson” Golden Globes: Motion Picture, Drama (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) 2 “Anora” (Neon) 3 “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) 4 “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) 5 “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) 6 “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) Next in Line 7 “The Substance” 8 “Deadpool & Wolverine” 9 “The Wild Robot” 10 “Inside Out 2” Golden Globes: Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: A24 And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 Adrien Brody
“The Brutalist” (A24)2 Ralph Fiennes
“Conclave” (Focus Features)3 Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24)4 Timothée Chalamet
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)5 Daniel Craig
“Queer” (A24)6 Paul Mescal
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)Next in Line 7 Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice” 8 John David Washington, “The Piano Lesson” 9 Andrew Garfield, “We Live in Time” 10 Jude Law, “The Order” Golden Globes: Actor, Drama (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Actor (Comedy or Musical)
Image Credit: Atsushi Nishijima And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 Jesse Plemons
“Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)2 Glen Powell
“Hit Man” (Netflix)3 Sebastian Stan
“A Different Man” (A24)4 Jesse Eisenberg
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)5 Ryan Reynolds
“Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)6 Gabriel LaBelle
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)Next in Line 7 Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker: Folie à Deux” 8 Michael Keaton, “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” 9 Hugh Grant, “Heretic” 10 Ryan Gosling, “The Fall Guy” Golden Globes: Actor, Comedy or Musical (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: Pablo Larraín And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 Angelina Jolie
“Maria” (Netflix)2 Nicole Kidman
“Babygirl” (A24)3 Tilda Swinton
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)4 Saoirse Ronan
“The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)5 Marianne Jean-Baptiste
“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)6 Fernanda Torres
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)Next in Line 7 Pamela Anderson, “The Last Showgirl” 8 Florence Pugh, “We Live in Time” 9 Kate Winslet, “Lee” 10 Jodie Comer, “The Bikeriders” Golden Globes: Actress, Drama (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Actress (Comedy or Musical)
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 Mikey Madison
“Anora” (Neon)2 Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)3 Cynthia Erivo
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)4 Demi Moore
“The Substance” (Mubi)5 Zendaya
“Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios)6 June Squibb
“Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures)Next in Line 7 Amy Adams, “Nightbitch” 8 Emma Stone, “Kinds of Kindness” 9 Emily Blunt, “The Fall Guy” 10 Olivia Colman, “Wicked Little Letters” Golden Globes: Actress, Comedy or Musical (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Supporting Actor (Motion Picture)
Image Credit: Paramount Pictures And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 Denzel Washington
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)2 Kieran Culkin
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)3 Guy Pearce
“The Brutalist” (A24)4 Stanley Tucci
“Conclave” (Focus Features)5 Josh O’Connor
“Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios)6 Jeremy Strong
“The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)Next in Line 7 Yura Borisov, “Anora” 8 Clarence Maclin, “Sing Sing” 9 John Turturro, “The Room Next Door” 10 Drew Starkey, “Queer” Golden Globes: Supporting Actor, Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Supporting Actress (Motion Picture)
Image Credit: “Emilia Perez” (Courtesy of Saint-Laurent Productions) And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 Zoe Saldaña
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)2 Saoirse Ronan
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)3 Danielle Deadwyler
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)4 Ariana Grande
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)5 Selena Gomez
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)6 Jennifer Lopez
“Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM)Next in Line 7 Margaret Qualley, “The Substance” 8 Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave” 9 Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown” 10 Leonie Benesch, “September 5” Golden Globes: Supporting Actress, Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Director (Motion Picture)
Image Credit: Paramount Pictures And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 Ridley Scott
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)2 Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)3 Sean Baker
“Anora” (Neon)4 Brady Corbet
“The Brutalist” (A24)5 Edward Berger
“Conclave” (Focus Features)6 Denis Villeneuve
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)Next in Line 7 Steve McQueen, “Blitz” 8 Walter Salles, “I’m Still Here” 9 Pedro Almodóvar, “The Room Next Door” 10 Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance” Golden Globes: Director, Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Screenplay (Motion Picture)
Image Credit: Neon And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 “Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker2 “Conclave” (Focus Features)
Peter Straughan3 “The Brutalist” (A24)
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold4 “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard5 “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg6 “The Substance” (Mubi)
Coralie FargeatNext in Line 7 “Saturday Night” 8 “Blitz” 9 “A Complete Unknown” 10 “Challengers” Golden Globes: Screenplay, Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Score
Image Credit: Screenshot courtesy Sony Pictures Classics And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Alberto Iglesias2 “The Brutalist” (A24)
Daniel Blumberg3 “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Clément Ducol, Camille4 “Conclave” (Focus Features)
Volker Bertelmann5 “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Hans Zimmer6 “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Jon BatisteNext in Line 7 “Blitz” 8 “Challengers” 9 “Gladiator II” 10 “September 5” Golden Globes: Original Score, Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Song
Image Credit: Shanna Besson And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Mi Camino” by Clément Ducol and Camille2 “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“El Mal” by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard3 “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
“Piece by Piece” by Pharrell Williams4 “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures) — “Forbidden Road” by Robbie Williams, Freddy Wexler & Sacha Skarbek 5 “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
“Folie à Deux” by Lady Gaga6 “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)
“Beautiful That Way” by Miley Cyrus, Lykke Li, and Andrew WyattNext in Line 7 “Winter Coat” from “Blitz” 8 “Sick in the Head” from “Kneecap” 9 “Under the Tree” from “That Christmas” 10 “Compress/Regress” from “Challengers” Golden Globes: Original Song, Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Animated Feature
Image Credit: DreamWorks Animation/Universal And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) 2 “Inside Out 2” (Pixar) 3 “Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films) 4 “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow) 5 “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix) 6 “That Christmas” (Netflix) Next in Line 7 “Piece by Piece” 8 “The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim” 9 “Transformers One” 10 “The Colors Within” Golden Globes: Motion Picture, Animated (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Non-English Language Film
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Colle And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
France2 “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Brazil3 “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)
Germany4 “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
India5 “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Ireland6 “Armand” (IFC Films)
NorwayNext in Line 7 “Flow” 8 “The Girl with the Needle” 9 “Grand Tour” 10 “The Devil’s Bath” Golden Globes: Supporting Actress, Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Cinematic Box Office Achievement
Image Credit: ©Walt Disney Co./Courtesy Everett Collection And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios) 2 “Inside Out 2” (Pixar) 3 “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) 4 “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) 5 “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) 6 “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios) 7 “A Quiet Place: Day One” (Paramount Pictures) 8 “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) Next in Line 9 “Moana 2” 10 “Twisters” Golden Globes: Supporting Actress, Television (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) TELEVISION CATEGORIES
TV Series (Drama)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Katie Yu/FX And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 “Shōgun” (FX) 2 “Squid Game” (Netflix) 3 “House of the Dragon” (HBO | Max) 4 “Presumed Innocent” (Apple TV+) 5 “Fallout” (Prime Video) 6 “The Diplomat” (Netflix) Next in Line 7 “Slow Horses” 8 “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” 9 “Black Doves” 10 “Bridgerton” Golden Globes: TV Series, Drama (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) TV Series (Comedy or Musical)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Max And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 “Hacks” (HBO | Max) 2 “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) 3 “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) 4 “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix) 5 “The Bear” ‘(FX) 6 “St. Denis Medical” (NBC) Next in Line 7 “Palm Royale” 8 “Bad Monkey” 9 “The Franchise” 10 “Shrinking” Golden Globes: TV Series, Comedy (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) TV Series (Limited or TV Movie)
Image Credit: MILES CRIST/NETFLIX And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix) 2 “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix) 3 “Agatha All Along” (Disney+) 4 “Disclaimer” (Apple TV+) 5 “The Penguin” (HBO | Max) 6 “True Detective: Night Country” (HBO | Max) Next in Line 7 “American Sports Story: Aaron Hernandez” 8 “Ripley” 9 “Before” 10 “The Perfect Couple” Golden Globes: TV Series, Drama (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) TV Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: FX And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 Hiroyuki Sanada
“Shōgun” (FX)2 Jake Gyllenhaal
“Presumed Innocent” (Apple TV+)3 Gary Oldman
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)4 Lee Jung-jae
“Squid Game” (Netflix)5 Colin Farrell
“Sugar” (Apple TV+)6 Billy Bob Thornton
“Landman” (Paramount+)Next in Line 7 Eddie Redmayne, “The Day of the Jackal” 8 Rufus Sewell, “The Diplomat” 9 Ben Whishaw, “Black Doves” 10 Zachary Quinto, “Brilliant Minds” Golden Globes: TV Actor, Drama (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) TV Actor (Comedy)
And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 Jeremy Allen White
“The Bear” (FX)2 Steve Martin
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)3 Martin Short
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)4 Vince Vaughn
“Bad Monkey” (Apple TV+)5 Ray Romano
“No Good Deed” (Netflix)6 Theo James
“The Gentlemen” (Netflix)Next in Line 7 Jason Segel, “Shrinking” 8 Brian Jordan Alvarez, “English Teacher” 9 Adam Brody, “Nobody Wants This” 10 Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm” Golden Globes: TV Actor, Comedy (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) TV Actor (Limited Series or Movie)
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 Richard Gadd
“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)2 Colin Farrell
“The Penguin” (HBO | Max)3 Andrew Scott
“Ripley” (Netflix)4 Kevin Kline
“Disclaimer” (Apple TV+)5 Josh Andres Rivera
“American Sports Story: Aaron Hernandez” (FX)6 Tom Hollander
“Feud: Capote vs. The Swans” (FX)Next in Line 7 Michael Sheen, “A Very Royal Scandal” 8 Nicholas Alexander Chavez, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” 9 Cooper Koch, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” 10 Ed O’Neill, “Clipped” Golden Globes: TV Actor, Limited Series or Movie (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) TV Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: FX And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 Anna Sawai
“Shōgun” (FX)2 Keri Russell
“The Diplomat” (Netflix)3 Kathy Bates
“Matlock” (CBS)4 Keira Knightley
“Black Doves” (Netflix)5 Marisa Abela
“Industry” (HBO | Max)6 Myha’la Herrold
“Industry” (HBO | Max)Next in Line 7 Emily Watson, “Dune: Prophecy” 8 Maya Erskine, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” 9 Nicola Coughlan, “Bridgerton” 10 Emma D’Arcy, “House of the Dragon” Golden Globes: TV Actress, Drama (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) TV Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: Hilary Bronwyn Gayle And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 Jean Smart
“Hacks” (HBO | Max)2 Quinta Brunson
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)3 Selena Gomez
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)4 Ayo Edebiri
“The Bear” ‘(FX)5 Kristen Bell
“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)6 Lisa Kudrow
“No Good Deed” (Netflix)Next in Line 7 Kristen Wiig, “Palm Royale” 8 Maya Rudolph, “Loot” 9 Wendi McLendon-Covey, “St. Denis Medical” 10 Natasha Rothwell, “How to Die Alone” Golden Globes: TV Series, Comedy (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) TV Actress (Limited Series or Movie)
Image Credit: Courtesy of HBO And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 Jodie Foster
“True Detective: Night Country” (HBO | Max)2 Cate Blanchett
“Disclaimer” (Apple TV+)3 Sofía Vergara
“Griselda” (Netflix)4 Kathryn Hahn
“Agatha All Along” (Disney+)5 Natalie Portman
“Lady in the Lake” (Apple TV+)6 Kate Winslet
“The Regime” (HBO | Max)Next in Line 7 Nicole Kidman, “The Perfect Couple” 8 Cristin Milioti, “The Penguin” 9 Betty Gilpin, “Three Women” 10 Billie Piper, “Scoop” Golden Globes: TV Actress, Limited Series or Movie (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Supporting Actor (Television)
Image Credit: MILES CRIST/NETFLIX And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 Javier Bardem
“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)2 Peter Sarsgaard
“Presumed Innocent” (Apple TV+)3 Harrison Ford
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)4 Ebon Moss-Bachrach
“The Bear” (FX)5 Robert Downey Jr.
“The Sympathizer” (HBO | Max)6 Jack Lowden
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)Next in Line 7 Sacha Baron Cohen, “Disclaimer” 8 Paul W. Downs, “Hacks” 9 Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary” 10 Tadanobu Asano, “Shōgun“ Golden Globes: Supporting Actor, Television (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Supporting Actress (Television)
Image Credit: Netflix And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 Jessica Gunning
“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)2 Liza Colón-Zayas
“The Bear” (FX)3 Hannah Einbinder
“Hacks” (HBO | Max)4 Kali Reis
“True Detective: Night Country” (HBO | Max)5 Meryl Streep
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)6 Nava Mau
“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)Next in Line 7 Ruth Negga, “Presumed Innocent” 8 Carol Burnett, “Palm Royale” 9 Lesley Manville, “Disclaimer” 10 Chloë Sevigny, “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” Golden Globes: Supporting Actress, Television (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Stand Up Comedy Performance
Image Credit: SCOTT YAMANO/NETFLIX And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank 1 Adam Sandler
“Love You” (Netflix)2 Nikki Glaser
“Someday You’ll Die” (HBO | Max)3 Ali Wong
“Single Lady” (Netflix)4 Alex Edelman
“Just For Us” (HBO | Max)5 Ramy Youssef
“More Feelings” (HBO | Max)6 Ellen Degeneres
“For Your Approval” (Netflix)Next in Line 7 Katt Williams, “Woke Foke” 8 Jacqueline Novak, “Get On Your Knees” 9 Colin Jost & Michael Che, “New York After Dark” 10 Joe Rogan, “Burn the Boats” Golden Globes: Stand-Up Comedy Performance, TV (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions)
