Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Dying for Sex — “You’re Killing Me, Ernie” — Episode 7 (Airs Friday, April 4 on Hulu ) — Pictured: (l-r) Michelle Williams as Molly. CR: Sarah Shatz/FX
Sarah Shatz/FX
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie Commentary (Updated April 3, 2025): From Oscar-winning and -nominated royalty to breakout newcomers, the lead actress (limited) race has conventional contenders, with room for a few surprises.
Cristin Milioti is a double threat on the circuit this year. Riding the wave of critical acclaim for “The Penguin,” Milioti’s Sofia Falcone, the cunning daughter of a crime boss navigating Gotham’s violent underworld, is beloved in the industry. That was proven by her Critics Choice win back in February. With an impressive résumé that includes riveting turns in films such as “Palm Springs” and the TV series “Made for Love,” this may be one of her richest and most complex roles yet. She also appears in the Netflix anthology series “Black Mirror,” in the meta-sequel episode “USS Callister: Into Infinity.” But genre roles and awards recognition don’t always align.
That’s why early bets are on more “awards-baity” performances in the race.
At the top of the rankings is Michelle Williams, whose searing and heartbreaking performance in “Dying for Sex” has positioned her as the frontrunner in this year’s race. Based on the popular podcast of the same name, the FX limited series tells the story of a woman diagnosed with terminal cancer who embarks on a journey of sexual and emotional liberation.
Williams is a five-time Oscar nominee, most recently for “The Fabelmans” in 2023, and an Emmy winner for FX’s “Fosse/Verdon” in 2019. With her vulnerable and fearless turn, she could add another statuette to her mantle.
Few actors come with more awards pedigree than Cate Blanchett. In Alfonso Cuarón’s “Disclaimer,” the two-time Oscar winner — for “The Aviator” (2004) and “Blue Jasmine” (2013) — dives into psychological suspense with her signature commitment and intensity. Though she’s never won an Emmy, Blanchett’s previous nomination for 2020’s miniseries “Mrs. America” and decades of acclaim make her a formidable contender. If “Disclaimer” lands with voters and Apple TV+ campaigns aggressively, it could mark her long-overdue first Emmy win, getting her closer to completing her Triple Crown of Acting. She still needs a Tony statuette.
After the top three spots, things are wide open for some surprise entrants.
After nearly two decades as Meredith Grey on “Grey’s Anatomy,” Ellen Pompeo steps into new territory with Hulu’s “Good American Family.” Other possibilities include actors from TV movies such as Renée Zellweger in Peacock’s comedy sequel “Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy” and Sadie Sink in Hulu’s “O’Dessa,” which premiered at SXSW.
(The list of predicted nominees and contenders is incomplete and will be updated every Thursday throughout the TV Awards season.)
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And the Predicted Contenders Are:
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More Information (Lead Actress Limited)
2024 category winner: Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country” (HBO/Max)
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About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence; the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards, recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship; and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy hosts the Emmys and has over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
