Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din
The year 2024 marked a significant turning point in global politics, a year that provided a clear indicator of emerging trends that reshaped the international landscape. The primary focus of this year was on escalating crises in Ukraine and the Middle East, which became the center of a spiral of tension, and the unpredictable U.S. presidential elections. These events have introduced a new level of uncertainty into global politics, provoking widespread debates about the possibility of large-scale conflicts, with some even referring to the situation as the onset of the Third World War.
The Ukrainian and Middle Eastern crises escalated to unprecedented levels, and their ripple effects stretched far beyond the immediate regions. The military actions and political developments in these areas brought global powers closer to confrontation, raising questions about the future stability of international relations. At the same time, the results of the U.S. presidential election became a major factor contributing to the political chaos. The uncertainty surrounding the elections raised alarms worldwide about the potential outcomes, leaving global leaders and nations grappling with the question: what will the arrival of a new U.S. administration mean for the world, and how will it affect relations with both allies and adversaries?
A significant theme this year was the growing unpredictability of political events. As many nations faced major internal and external challenges, the global balance of power appeared to shift, creating an environment where diplomatic rules and norms often seemed to be disregarded. The U.S. elections, which were among the most unpredictable in recent history, set the stage for a series of unforeseen developments.
The sudden withdrawal of President Joe Biden from the presidential race, the unexpected nomination of Kamala Harris as a candidate, and the assassination attempt on Donald Trump were all indicators of the political turmoil sweeping the U.S. and, by extension, the world. These events created immense tension within the United States, as citizens and political analysts speculated about the future direction of the country. For many nations, the question of how a new administration would impact international policies was one of the most pressing concerns of 2024.
The crucial issue of the future model of international relations—whether globalism or national sovereignty would dominate the global stage—became a key theme throughout the year. This question significantly influenced political actions and the strategies of countries worldwide. Whether dealing with the situation in Ukraine, the Middle East, or East Asia, or grappling with European Union dynamics or challenges in Africa and Latin America, the future direction of international relations played a critical role in shaping the behavior of global actors.
As global political chaos deepened and diplomacy became increasingly ineffective, countries began to take bold and independent actions, often disregarding their traditional allies and partners. A growing number of leaders adopted the “self-made” approach, making decisions and taking initiatives without consulting or coordinating with others. In some cases, these actions were taken with little regard for established diplomatic norms or international rules of engagement.
One of the most notable examples of this trend was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who, during military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, often acted without waiting for approval or coordination with his closest ally—the United States. Netanyahu’s actions highlighted the growing unpredictability in international relations, where even long-standing alliances seemed increasingly fragile.
In Europe, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán took the initiative by embarking on a diplomatic mission to Ukraine, Moscow, and Beijing mid-year, anticipating the arrival of a U.S. administration that he believed would share his political views. Orbán’s actions led to significant controversy within the European Union, and the EU was quick to distance itself from him, claiming that Hungary, despite holding the EU presidency at the time, had not been authorized to speak on behalf of the EU. Orbán’s actions raised further concerns about the future of European unity and the EU’s role in global politics.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron also attempted to push a bold initiative to build a coalition of Western nations to send military forces to Ukraine. However, this radical proposal was met with strong resistance, even from European leaders and NATO officials, who ultimately distanced themselves from Macron’s plan.
These developments—though extreme—highlighted a growing trend of unilateral actions in global politics. They signaled a major shift in how nations interact on the international stage and suggested that 2024 would be remembered as a year of profound political change and disruption. In the end, the world witnessed a “closed fracture” in global politics—an unseen but deeply significant shift in the balance of power.
