Political Crisis in France: Macron Foreign Policy Remains Unchanged
Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din
For the first time since 1962, the French parliament could vote against the government, as Prime Minister Michel Barnier has decided to approve the social security budget without the National Assembly’s approval. Both right-wing and left-wing parties have separately launched motions of no confidence, and parliamentary discussions on the matter are expected to begin on Wednesday afternoon. The far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, has already announced its readiness to support the left-wing’s no-confidence motion. Experts argue that the proposed budget aligns perfectly with the country’s goals to overcome the ongoing economic crisis. However, opposition parties are prioritizing the interests of their constituencies. Despite this internal political turmoil, President Macron does not appear to be considering a change in his foreign policy, particularly regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
No-Confidence Motion Against the French Government
Prime Minister Michel Barnier now faces the risk of resignation after both the left-wing “New Popular Front” and the right-wing National Rally initiated no-confidence motions. The government, in particular, failed to reach an agreement with the opposition on certain provisions of the social security budget and ultimately took a risk by invoking Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, which allows the approval of a law without going through the National Assembly. According to the Constitution, the only way to block the law in such cases is by introducing a motion of no confidence.
The last successful no-confidence vote was in 1962 against the government of Georges Pompidou. However, President Charles de Gaulle refused to accept the government’s resignation and opted to dissolve the National Assembly. Since then, there have been several attempts to initiate no-confidence votes, but none succeeded due to insufficient votes. Now, following the dissolution of the National Assembly and the parliamentary elections in July 2024, the opposition may be able to unite and find common ground.
Developments in the Budget and Opposition Protests
The National Rally has already confirmed that it will support the Socialist Party’s motion of no confidence. If this occurs, they would gather 333 votes, surpassing the required threshold of 288. Despite their ideological differences, both the left and right are united in their strong opposition to some of the proposed budget measures. The party led by Jordan Bardella believes that the new budget will negatively affect the purchasing power of the French population. They oppose the increase in electricity taxes and the recalculation of pensions, measures aimed at saving about 6 billion euros for the national treasury.
On the other hand, the left-wing opposition objects to Barnier’s refusal to impose taxes on the wealthy. They are also advocating for increased government spending, particularly to offset inflation, improve public services, and support the country’s environmental transition.
A Deepening Economic Crisis: France on High Alert
A public opinion poll published on December 2 reveals that purchasing power remains the most critical issue for the French people (38%), surpassing environmental concerns (23%) and crime rates (22%). Meanwhile, France is grappling with a severe economic crisis. The budget deficit for 2024 is expected to reach 6.1% of GDP. According to projections, public debt will reach approximately 3.3 trillion euros by the end of the year, which equates to 115% of GDP, compared to 110.7% at the end of the first quarter of the year.
There is no doubt that the Ukraine crisis has exacerbated the country’s economic situation. The surge in energy prices following the withdrawal from Russian resources has led to higher product prices. In March 2022, the Bank of France reported increased inflation and declining purchasing power.
Will the Political Crisis Affect the President’s Foreign Policy?
Amid France’s critical economic situation, the measures proposed by the government appear to be rational. Experts argue that some flexibility is needed in the French social welfare model, which has become too large and inflexible in the current circumstances.
However, despite this internal political and economic turmoil, President Macron’s government has not indicated any plans to alter its foreign policy, particularly its support for Ukraine. France remains a key player in the European Union’s stance on the Russian invasion, and it seems unlikely that domestic challenges will lead to any significant shifts in its foreign policy strategy, at least in the short term.
