Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din
Syria is once again witnessing intense military activity as armed factions, which launched a large-scale offensive in the Halb province on November 27, appear to be broadening their military objectives. According to Turkish media reports, the joint Islamist forces have set their sights on the capture of Tel Rifaat, a strategically located town just 18 kilometers from the Turkish border. This town has long been a focal point of tension between Turkey and Kurdish groups, with Ankara repeatedly threatening to occupy Tel Rifaat, claiming it is under the operational control of Kurdish factions hostile to Turkey.
Turkey’s claims have been underpinned by past accusations against Russia. Five years ago, in a special Russian-Turkish memorandum, Moscow agreed to the withdrawal of Kurdish units from Tel Rifaat. Despite these prior commitments, the situation has escalated, with Islamist groups now pushing forward to capture the town. Turkish media outlets, including Yeni Safak, report that Islamist forces are intensifying their efforts to seize control of Tel Rifaat, focusing primarily on Kurdish positions. Local civilians in the region have been urged to evacuate as the fighting intensifies.
According to Turkiye Today, additional forces and military equipment are being mobilized by the Islamists to the outskirts of Tel Rifaat. Meanwhile, the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reports similar military build-ups in another key town, Manbij, which is also under Kurdish control and considered a zone of strategic interest by the Kurdish factions.
The ongoing offensive, which originated from the largest rebel-held province of Idlib, has reportedly disrupted the operational balance in the region. Turkiye Today emphasizes that if the provincial capital of Halb falls under the control of anti-government factions, it is highly likely that Tel Rifaat will be unable to withstand an Islamist siege, potentially cutting off Manbij from vital supply lines.
By Friday, according to Anadolu Agency, Islamist forces had advanced to the very outskirts of Halb city and were attempting to strike at military bases of the regular Syrian forces. In response, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has dispatched significant reinforcements, including heavy artillery, armored vehicles, and hundreds of soldiers, to defend strategic locations. Syrian officials have claimed that they are successfully repelling these attacks. One of their primary objectives is to prevent the Islamists from severing crucial supply routes, including the M4 highway, which connects the port city of Latakia with Halb.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, has condemned the actions, describing the events as “an infringement on Syria’s sovereignty in this region.” He reiterated Moscow’s support for Syrian authorities in restoring control and constitutional order in the region.
As for Turkey, which is a primary backer of the Islamist factions in northern Syria, the government has taken a cautious approach, trying to avoid further escalating tensions in the Middle East, especially amid the ongoing Palestinian conflict. However, a source from the Turkish government told The Middle East Eye (MEE) that Ankara has supported the offensive, arguing that the goal is to “restore the borders” of the largest enclave of rebel factions in Idlib.
Amidst the military buildup, Turkish state media outlets have fueled conspiracy theories suggesting that the radical Islamist fighters might be supported by U.S. and Israeli intelligence services. Nevertheless, identifying the main beneficiary of the intensifying conflict in Halb is not difficult, as Turkey is likely the primary player behind the growing instability.
Turkey’s relationship with the key instigator of the current offensive, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has been complicated. Ankara has attempted to establish a more favorable coalition of rebel groups in Syria, but this has been hindered by HTS’s radical ideological position, which has been labeled as a terrorist organization by Russia. Despite this, the two sides have occasionally found common ground on certain military objectives.
In 2016, Kurdish forces entered Tel Rifaat and Manbij. This development clashed with Ankara’s plans to establish a “security belt” along its southern border, aimed at pushing back Kurdish forces, whom Turkey views as enemies. In response, Turkey has repeatedly exerted military pressure on its southern neighbors to force the Kurdish groups to withdraw.
As a result, a memorandum of understanding between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, signed in 2019, laid out the requirement for Kurdish forces to withdraw from both Tel Rifaat and Manbij. However, Ankara has accused Moscow of failing to fulfill its obligations under the agreement. The recent offensive by Islamist groups, initially aimed at Syrian government forces and their Iranian allies, now clearly targets Kurdish positions along the border. This shift suggests that Turkey and its allies are reshaping the situation in northern Syria to their advantage, with little regard for other regional interests.
