Unprecedented escalation in northern Syria.. Thousands of displaced people and catastrophic humanitarian conditions

Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din

the “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” (HTS) alliance, supported by various factions, successfully captured Aleppo after a rapid and intense offensive. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) confirmed that government forces withdrew from Syria’s second-largest city without substantial resistance on November 30.

The HTS assault commenced on November 27, following a ceasefire in southern Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah. This truce ended nearly two months of hostilities after Israel’s ground invasion on October 1.

Despite the ceasefire in Lebanon, Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah positions near the Syria-Lebanon border have continued to prevent the transfer of arms and reinforcements. Analysts suggest that the weakening of Hezbollah’s presence in Syria allowed HTS to seize the opportunity and focus its efforts on capturing Aleppo.

Previously controlling parts of Idlib, Hama, Latakia, and Aleppo, HTS launched its operation by advancing from the western outskirts of Aleppo. Turkish media, including Anadolu Agency, reported that over 10,000 civilians fled the city toward areas still under government control in Idlib province. HTS forces quickly overtook key southern and northern districts, gaining strategic footholds.

In response, Syrian and Russian air forces intensified bombardments targeting HTS positions in Marea and Jabal al-Zawiya. The strikes marked Russia’s first major involvement in Aleppo since 2016. However, despite aerial bombardments, HTS appears to be consolidating its hold on Aleppo, with reports suggesting that its forces could soon capture the city’s international airport.

Western media, including the Associated Press (AP), highlighted minimal resistance from Syrian government troops, with many soldiers abandoning their positions. Former U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford noted that the Syrian army has been “severely weakened,” especially in regions now under HTS control.

The Syrian government has described the retreat as temporary, claiming it is regrouping forces for a counteroffensive. Damascus remains adamant that the withdrawal is part of a strategic recalibration. Reinforcements have already been dispatched to the Aleppo front.

Observers are divided over Turkey’s role in HTS’s rapid advance. While some reports suggest indirect Turkish support for HTS, others indicate Ankara was taken by surprise by the developments. At the same time, Kurdish forces aligned with the United States have maintained a cautious stance, further complicating the regional dynamics.

In addition to seizing Aleppo, HTS gained control of Saraqib, a town situated along the vital M5 highway that links Damascus to Aleppo. This represents a significant strategic gain, further disrupting government supply routes. Al Jazeera quoted Turkish sources confirming HTS’s dominance over this critical area.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that the escalating violence has displaced over 14,000 people, with children accounting for nearly half of this number.

Experts warn that HTS is unlikely to expand beyond its current stronghold in northwestern Syria. Colin Clarke, a senior fellow at the Soufan Center, explained that this offensive deals a heavy blow to Iranian ambitions in the region.

“The collapse of the so-called Shia Crescent is evident. Iran’s influence in Syria is faltering,” Clarke stated, reflecting the widespread implications of the recent developments.

The fall of Aleppo marks the end of a fragile ceasefire agreement in Idlib brokered by Turkey and Russia in 2020. Analysts believe that the collapse of this status quo will plunge northern Syria into greater uncertainty, with humanitarian needs rapidly escalating.

Meanwhile, Armenia has announced the temporary withdrawal of its humanitarian mission from Aleppo due to heightened hostilities. The Armenian Defense Ministry confirmed on November 29 that all personnel involved in demining and medical operations had been relocated to Armenia.

This dramatic turn of events underscores the shifting balance of power in Syria and its potential to reshape the geopolitical landscape of the region.