Cairo: Hani Kamal El-Din
Syria has witnessed a significant military escalation as stability settles in neighboring Lebanon. Armed groups controlling Idlib province—the largest rebel stronghold in Syria—announced a large-scale offensive. This development follows four years of relative calm achieved through Russian-Turkish agreements. Observers believe these factions have taken advantage of what they see as the weakened state of Lebanon’s Hezbollah, whose capabilities have been diminished by sustained Israeli airstrikes targeting its positions in Lebanon and Syria.
The offensive, led by factions in Idlib, targeted areas in Aleppo province. A joint operations room of the factions, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the dominant military force in Idlib, spearheaded the assault. HTS stated that the aim of this “preemptive strike” was to deter the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and neutralize threats posed by Iranian militias.
The attack coincided with the official implementation of a ceasefire in neighboring Lebanon. Within the first ten hours, the factions advanced to within six kilometers of Aleppo’s provincial capital.
According to the Turkish Anadolu Agency, as of November 28, militants had captured 32 towns and an area totaling 245 square kilometers, forcing SAA units to retreat.
On the other hand, Syria’s Al Watan newspaper, close to Damascus, reported that the SAA, supported by Russian Aerospace Forces, is successfully repelling attacks, claiming that the armed groups are suffering heavy losses in manpower and equipment despite their assertions of military gains.
The frontline southwest of Aleppo has been relatively stable since a 2020 ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey. However, armed factions in Idlib claim they were provoked by increased attacks from the SAA and its allies, including Hezbollah. Analysts suggest these groups are leveraging the regional disarray caused by Israeli airstrikes to expand their influence.
Since the Gaza war began, Aleppo province has been a repeated target of Israeli airstrikes, which Israel says are aimed at Hezbollah positions and transit routes for Iranian arms. These strikes occasionally hit SAA personnel as well.
While a ceasefire now governs relations between Israel and Hezbollah, Israel has made it clear it will not restrict its “anti-terror operations,” including those conducted in Syria. Speaking to Kommersant, IDF spokesperson Major Anna Ukolova emphasized, “Our primary goal is to prevent the smuggling of Iranian weapons into Lebanon. We will respond to any attempt by Hezbollah to restore its arsenal. Our aim is to protect Israeli citizens and facilitate the safe return of northern residents to their homes.”
Experts believe the Idlib factions’ operation was planned well in advance but timed to align with current regional dynamics. Anton Mardasov of the Russian International Affairs Council noted several factors driving this escalation.
“The first factor is internal,” Mardasov explained. “HTS faces protests in Idlib over its monopoly on power.”
The second factor, he said, involves Turkey, which was disappointed by Damascus’s refusal to engage in peace agreements. Recent ammunition deliveries from Turkey have played a crucial role in the current offensive.
Another factor, according to Mardasov, is Hezbollah’s weakened position in light of the ceasefire in Lebanon. “Some of the areas captured in Aleppo by the opposition were previously held by Hezbollah, and the factions fully understood its vulnerabilities,” he said. Commanders also reportedly waited for the media attention around Lebanon to subside to maximize coverage of their actions.
